RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Roberto Kraenkel, professor of the Institute of Theoretical Physics of the Methodist University of São Paulo (UMESP), and a member of the Covid-19 BR Observatory, a group that currently includes 81 experts from different areas, says that the principal driver of the pandemic’s acceleration is everyday life.
Therefore, he stressed that Brazilian society has no alternative but to step strongly on the brakes, right now. “The country waited for the storm with open windows,” says the academic.
Asked about the Ministry of Health’s estimates according to which the daily death rate will reach 3,000 in about two weeks, the physicist choose not to give a number. But he conceded that it is possible.
The physicist, who this week signed along with colleagues the note entitled “A catastrophe is approaching, but we can still prevent it”, no longer believes in a reaction from the Jair Bolsonaro government. However, Kraenkel believes that the president and his leadership must be held accountable for the present debacle, including an impact on their political capital.
Many of the statements that scientists like Kraenkel have been voicing day after day to alert about the uncontrolled pandemic could seem like catch phrases to some, if indicators weren’t speaking for themselves and causing consternation. In the case of São Paulo, for example, the wealthiest state in the country, its governor João Doria announced on Friday, March 5th, that he will reopen field hospitals.
That morning, the state totaled 2.09 million Covid-19 cases and 61,064 deaths, according to state Health Secretary Jean Gorinchteyn. The ICU bed occupancy rate stood at 77.4% in the state, and at 79.1% in Greater São Paulo. “I would like to stress this so everyone will understand the fast spread of this disease. Last week, on Monday, February 22nd, 11 days ago, bed occupancy in Greater São Paulo stood at 68.8%. So, it is 10% higher than 10 days ago. And in the whole state, we had 66% occupancy, an increase of 11.4%,” detailed Gorinchteyn, in a press conference.
Lockdown
Like his colleagues at the Covid-19 BR Observatory, Kraenkel advocates a lockdown in cities to prevent the worst. “If it is done, we can prevent a large number of deaths, which are a consequence of infections, something preventable. Deaths are always lagging behind the surge in cases. But in any event, the figures should continue to rise,” he said.
Variants
The physicist mentioned the latest report published by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) as being of “abysmal” significance. After warning, earlier this week, about the widespread increase in hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy, the scientific body again published a statement yesterday, this time about the spread of novel coronavirus variants from the United Kingdom and South Africa, which are now prevalent in 6 out of 8 states studied.
“The situation ahead is one of severe virus circulation and case explosion. The pace of the epidemic is higher given the finding that more transmissible variants are widespread,” Kraenkel notes. “And we can’t regard it as normal to have this many people hospitalized, or dying.”
The scientist noted, however, that no society stops reacting altogether, and some measure will ultimately have an impact. He mentioned, for example, the tightening of restrictive measures in the state of São Paulo, which will come into force this Saturday, March 6th. According to Kraenkel, orderly quarantines, with structural support from local authorities, and even mass testing are measures that should be immediately implemented and be prioritized in terms of investment.
However, the physicist pointed out that the coordination by government is crucial, and that the burden of the pandemic can’t be shifted to the population. “Citizens are not the ideal beings of Enlightenment. We can dream about it, but it’s not reality.”
Source: Valor