RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In a deceleration process after a long period in plateau, Brazil is showing a significant drop in the indicators of deaths by Covid-19 in relation to eleven other Latin American countries.
To illustrate this, the decrease in deaths over the last fortnight, between August 29th and last Saturday, September 10th, considering Brazilian rolling averages, stood at 19.4 percent, a lower average than only eight other countries in the bloc.
Countries such as Bolivia and Cuba, for instance, experienced an increase of over 100 percent in the number of fatalities over the same period. Ecuador recorded the worst scenario in all of Latin America, reaching a staggering 1,490.4 percent increase over the course of the fifteen days.
Countries with a better level than Brazil are Panama, Peru, Colombia, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Uruguay, the first in the list with a decrease of 66.7 percent.
In relation to new cases, Brazil is also experiencing a significant reduction. Between August 29th and September 12th, the country reduced the rolling average records by 27 percent. Argentina had an increase of 22.9 percent in cases over the same period and Cuba saw its indicators rise 15 percent.
Uruguay (175 percent), Paraguay (63.3 percent), Dominican Republic (59 percent), Venezuela (49 percent), and Costa Rica (30.1 percent) also saw an increase in case records.
The only countries in a better situation than Brazil over the past fortnight were Peru (-27.3 percent), Guatemala (-33.6 percent), El Salvador (-44.5 percent), Honduras (-45.5 percent), and Ecuador (170.1 percent). Panama, Colombia, and Bolivia are also decreasing, according to the parameters established by the W.H.O. – a change in the scenario can only be considered from a 15 percent positive or negative variation.
The Ecuadorian case should be noted, as it had the worst death figures and the best in terms of cases. The confusion is due to the September 7th update. The country recorded a negative number of new cases (-8,261) and a very high number of deaths (3,800, 19 times higher than the single-day record throughout the pandemic). When cumulative data, either positive or negative, are released on the same day, the assessment of its rolling averages is ultimately compromised.
The calculation of rolling averages considers the total records of the past seven days divided by seven. Using this approach, the traditional underreporting of cases and deaths by Covid-19 that occur on weekends can be mitigated, when part of Brazil’s Health Secretariats struggle to report regional epidemiological indicators.
On Saturday, September 12th, the Brazilian rolling averages stood at 27,526.7 in cases and at 715.3 in deaths, which sustains the drop in both indicators. The country recorded 33,523 new cases and 814 deaths in the past 24 hours.
Source: Veja