RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Founded in 2014, Spume.co is a Brazilian startup specialized in big data and artificial intelligence for event forecasting. This year, it attracted attention for predicting the peak of the coronavirus in Brazil and other parts of the world 30 days in advance, by means of an algorithm developed with the help of experts such as scientists, mathematicians, and infectologists. Currently, the platform convocamosvoce.org updates the virus behavior around the world in real time.
Mauro Jeckel, CEO of Spume.co, collected the main effects of Covid-19 on the real estate market among the over 12 million texts compiled between January and July. The cut takes into account 15 databases, among them social media, IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) figures and sector indicators, in addition to 30 distinct emotions, such as joy, sadness, dissatisfaction, and anger.
“We rely on the help of two algorithms to interpret texts and identify root causes,” explains Jeckel. Among the startup clients, are companies such as Basf, Boticário, Saint-Gobain, and Suvinil.
Below are Spume.co’s main findings:
1. The home is the new temple
During the pandemic, the time people spend awake enjoying the home increased from 25 to 66 percent. As a result, interest in subjects related to comfort, decoration, leisure at home, health, and well-being increased. Some of the most popular words from March to July: Netflix, videogames, TV, sliding chair, painting, lamp, coffee maker, microwave, gym equipment, yoga, vitamins, and meditation. “Homes have become a kind of temple, where people live and protect themselves,” says Jeckel.
2. Repairs on high
People are also more concerned with doing small repairs than reforms, according to Spume.co. “They haven’t been to the bank to ask for a loan to remodel, but they’re going to buy objects to change the home, because the visible hole and the worn paint, for instance, are starting to bother them more,” says Jeckel.
According to him, the wall filler indicator, which measures the significance people attach to their relationship with the home, has reached its highest peak in the past 20 years. “Wall filler sales increased five-fold in relation to the end of the year, which is the highest-selling period”, he says. The money formerly spent on travel, trips, gyms, and leisure has been directed to the home.
“They are compensatory expenses. It’s what we call the “lipstick effect” – a trend perceived after major crises, such as World War II and the collapse of the Twin Towers, in which products such as chocolates and lipsticks, which provide cheap pleasures, had a surge in sales”.
3. Moving to the periphery
According to Spume.co, the projection is that 20 percent of Brazilians in classes A and B will continue working from home after the pandemic. As a result, 14 percent of these people are expected to move, at first (over the next two years), to the peripheral areas outside cities. In the next stage, their new home could be on the beach or in the countryside.
“We see this trend in Europe and in the United States. Residents of the capital started to move to the periphery and then moved from the periphery to the beach or to the lake,” says Jeckel. “This is not an immediate trend, but, following world standards, everything suggests that this trend will continue”.
4. Search for another room
The search for properties with an extra room or the enlargement of an existing environment to turn it into a home office are other trends pointed out by the study. “The move to the periphery is also related to this need, considering that the price per square meter is lower there, which would allow choosing larger properties with one more room for a home office“.
5. Rethinking the rent
With interest rates dropping and the willingness to do repairs in the home, those who live on rental property income are beginning to consider whether it would be worthwhile to move into their own homes. “We have noticed a greater interest from those who want to sell and buy a property,” says Jeckel. Most tenants feel like owners of the property, except in two instances: condo meetings and when it’s time to renovate the house. “These situations produce a feeling of impotence,” says the executive.
One thing is certain: the real estate market will have to adjust to the new needs of a new consumer.
Source: Exame