RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – For the first time in almost four months, Brazil reported coronavirus transmission under control, according to calculations by Imperial College’s epidemic control center. For the week that began on Sunday, August 16th, the contagion rate – which points to how many people each infected person on average transmits the pathogen – has been calculated at 0.98.
This means that every 100 people infected with the novel coronavirus spread the pathogen to 98 others, which in turn spread the pathogen to 96, which in turn spread the pathogen to 94, slowing down the spread.
However, the new Brazilian situation still does not represent a fully stabilized transmission control. Contagion reacceleration may occur as a result of greater optimism about the epidemic and the increase in people’s mobility, as shown by the Datafolha survey conducted on August 17th.
Ecuador and Bolivia, which had succeeded in reducing their rates, this week again recorded an accelerated phase, with 1.16 and 1.05, respectively. The same is true in European countries like Spain, Russia and France.
In addition to Brazil, the only South American country with a transmission rate below one is Chile, at 0.85. The Andean country completed the eighth week with controlled contagion, according to Imperial College, while Brazil left the red zone for the first time after 16 consecutive weeks of a transmission rate above one.
Imperial College calculates the transmission rate based on the number of reported deaths, as the data are less subject to underreporting than recorded cases; given that there is a time lag between the time of infection and death, changes in policies to fight the epidemic take an average of two weeks to be reflected in the calculations.
For the first time, Paraguay has been monitored by the British study center, which tracks countries classified as actively transmitting Covid-19 – those with at least 100 deaths since the start of the pandemic and at least ten deaths in each of the preceding two weeks.
Brazil’s neighbor had its contagion rate estimated at 1.95, which means that each person passes on the coronavirus to almost two other people, who in turn pass it on to four, with a multiplication of infection. This is the highest rate among the 68 countries monitored this week by Imperial College.
According to the World Health Organization’s most recent report, on Tuesday, August 18th, all South American countries have community transmission, with the exception of Uruguay and Guyana, which register only clusters (isolated outbreaks).
In the fortnight ended this Tuesday, Brazil recorded 288 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a drop from 291 in the fortnight ended a week ago, but still above the 240/100,000 recorded a month ago.
The country is no longer the leader in new cases considered by population: Colombia, with 295 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the fortnight, now registers the highest ratio among South American countries. Since the start of the pandemic, Brazil has registered over 3.3 million cases and 108,000 deaths from Covid-19.
Likewise, for the first time since late April, Brazil has left the top of estimates for the number of deaths for the week, according to Imperial College’s calculations, a position now taken by India. The number of deaths is expected to be 7,200 in the Asian country, against 6,910 in Brazil, a drop from 7,400 the preceding week. (The United States is not included in the report, since its data are calculated by state, in a separate study.)
Based on the reported deaths, Imperial College also estimates the accuracy of the number of cases reported by the countries. This indicator in the Brazilian case is 64 percent this week, which means that the country registers only about two-thirds of the true number of Covid-19 cases.
Source: Folhapress