RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Attrition of the support for the Bolsonaro administration among active service sectors of the Armed Forces has increased in the last week. Three main factors have contributed to this, in addition to ongoing concerns about the identification of the military with the government.
The performance of the interim Health Minister, General Eduardo Pazuello, was viewed with reserve by some of his uniformed colleagues.
The decision by the portfolio to follow President Bolsonaro’s order to change the death count parameter and reduce data transparency, was perceived as damaging to the Forces. Throughout the post-democratization years, surveys have pointed out the military as the country’s best-regarded institution, and this asset is, for many, at risk.
Another factor of friction was the Ministry of Defense decree allowing the army to operate fixed-wing aircraft, not only helicopters. The affair caused a sharp reaction in the Air Force, and the measure was repealed on Monday, June 8th.
It sounds like a Byzantine discussion, but it is not. Interoperability between forces is key to any modern armed power: the more overlapping roles, the worse. The Air Force saw in the gesture an additional favor for the Army, the original service branch of retired captain Bolsonaro.
The airmen are politically more distant from the government. They have only one nominal Minister, Marcos Pontes, of Science and Technology, handpicked by the President. The Army has seven of the nine military Ministers, and the Navy has one, heading the federal Secretariat of Strategic Affairs.
There are historical echoes here. More than 60 years ago, President Juscelino Kubitschek almost faced mutiny when he tried to accommodate airmen and marines after he bought the Minas Gerais aircraft carrier in 1956. The ship was ordered in an attempt to appease the moods of the two forces against the government, but only made matters worse. The dispute over who would operate aircraft on the ship was only resolved in 2000, with the Navy’s reactivation of its aircraft operations.
The new imbroglio affects the position of the Minister of Defense, reserve General Fernando Azevedo, whose role has been challenged in political and military circles.
On Saturday, June 6th, he again boarded a military helicopter with Bolsonaro. This time he did not fly over the rally as he had done the preceding Sunday, but joined his boss on another symbolic visit to a military unit -the Army’s Artillery Command.
Azevedo was interviewed by Supreme Court justices about his behavior, and the answers he provided were considered evasive. Opposition politicians say that Bolsonaro’s public displays of support for the armed forces only exacerbate the political crisis, which is now rife with coup rumors.
On the other hand, during his visit to Formosa, the President was escorted by Army Commander General Edson Leal Pujol. He and Bolsonaro are estranged politically, and the President considered removing him from office due to differences over the handling of the coronavirus crisis.
During the President’s recent flash visits to Army units, the General was not present. Other members of the government’s military wing also took part, such as Generals Augusto Heleno, Minister of the Institutional Security Office, and Luiz Eduardo Ramos Minister of the Government Secretariat, in addition to the Minister of Infrastructure, Captain (Ret’d) Tarcísio de Freitas.
The third divisive issue, which was intensively debated in military groups on Tuesday, June 9th, was the revelation by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo that the Army is close to closing a deal with the US pistol manufacturer SIG Sauer. The company is the subject of personal lobbying by Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro.
For some officers, the efforts of the President’s son undermine the project under discussion since 2018, and taint it with suspected political interference. The area of weapons and ammunition, an obsession of the President’s family and the object of Bolsonaro’s pledge to arm the population, is a source of unrest. The army is responsible for regulating the area, but the President recently overturned two firearms control ordinances.
As a result, the active military sees a high degree of anxiety caused by Bolsonaro’s political dynamic and that of his Ministers. There is considerable support for the President, particularly in his clash with Supreme Court rulings, but it has been declining as the military officer’s ranks grow. There is a concern, shared among members of the military wing, about the growing street protests against Bolsonaro.
On the one hand, some fear that the President will seek to use potential conflicts to justify calling on the Armed Forces to use against protesters.
The issue escalated last week, but Bolsonaro was advised by the military wing of his cabinet to reduce the temperature of his rhetoric, as here and there he accuses activists against his government of radicalism. For the government Generals, the priority is to stabilize the political framework, since for now the support of the Centrão (center and center-right coalition) is being secured through positions. This new search for allies in Congress removes any immediate threat of impeachment proceedings at this time.
There is also fear of radicalization among civilians, since it is part of the military mentality to be constantly concerned with contingency scenarios. This has been downplayed by governors, according to whom the rallies are under control for the time being and their police forces, in spite of their declining affection for Bolsonarism, are working as usual.
Last Sunday’s test passed with limited and hassle-free rallies. This, in turn, encouraged the oppositionists, who hope that a greater turnout of people protesting against the President will form if the pandemic subsides in the coming months, avoiding the need for social distancing.