RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil passed the 10,000 deaths mark on Saturday, May 9th. According to a report from the Ministry of Health, the country counts 10,627 victims and 155,939 confirmed cases. The official death toll in the last 24 hours was 730.
For specialists, along with reaching the limit of beds in the health system and the failure to provide tests – this is the nation testing the least among the eight countries with the most cases – the number of fatalities is the indicator to extend the restrictions, particularly through lockdown, as in São Luís, Maranhão, for instance.
The country is now among the nations with the highest number of deaths from the disease, behind the United States (77,344), still the world’s epicenter, the United Kingdom (31,662), Italy (30,201), Spain (26,299) and France (26,233), these latter European countries punished by the virus, considering the data compiled by John Hopkins University. Brazil had already surpassed China, Covid-19 ground zero, on April 28th.
In terms of the number of confirmed cases, according to John Hopkins, Brazil ranks eighth, behind the USA (1,286,833), Spain (222,857), Italy (217,185), the United Kingdom (212,629), Russia (198,675), France (176,202) and Germany (170,643). The official data pointed out 155,939 infections on Saturday, compared with 145,238 the previous day.
Throughout the week, Brazil has been breaking records of deaths in 24 hours. On Friday, there were 751. Faced with this scenario, experts say that the lockdown is a necessary measure to avoid an even greater explosion of cases in capitals and metropolitan regions.
“Several states have their health services demand on the limit and it looks like we will have a strong increase in cases and deaths in the coming weeks. This scenario shows the need for authorities to recommend lockdown, a measure that should be associated with actions to support socially vulnerable populations,” says epidemiologist Eliseu Alves Waldman, professor at the School of Public Health at USP (University of São Paulo).
Luciana Costa, assistant director of the Microbiology Institute of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), discusses the possibility of an effective total blockade.
“Lockdown is the only solution at this time that may have some degree of efficacy in controlling the epidemic curve, which is getting out of control. The social isolation measures have not enjoyed the support of the population as they should. That was a consequence of truncated information and contrasting messages sent by mayors and governors and by the President of the Republic,” she says.
“The epidemic can expand rapidly in the face of more crowds and activities. If nothing is done to stop the new infections, Brazil could become the new epicenter of the pandemic, along with the United States,” says the expert from the Laboratory of Genetics and Immunology of Viral Infections.
The compulsory quarantine measure, in which staying at home is an obligation and not merely a recommendation, has already been enforced by the government of Pará in the state capital, Belém, and in other major cities since Tuesday. In the Northeast, Maranhão and Ceará states have decreed similar measures.
Homework
The current moment has become “worrying”, in the opinion of researchers, because Brazil failed to do its homework. Virologist Flávio Guimarães da Fonseca, who works at the Center for Vaccine Technology (CT Vacinas), states that Brazil wasted the opportunity to watch the evolution of the pandemic in other countries, such as Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, which began to suffer the pandemic’s effects earlier.
“The reality of other countries, even western ones, could be used as a model to prepare the population. This was not done consistently throughout Brazil,” says the researcher at the Microbiology Department of UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais).
In early March, Italy was the European country most affected by Covid-19. There, the first death was confirmed on February 21st. Almost five weeks later, the country already counted more than 10,000 victims. Italy took a long time to react to the emergency and recorded over 30,000 deaths.
Rafaela Rosa-Ribeiro, doctor in cellular and structural biology, who is currently working with a group of virologists at the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, says she is looking at the same picture for the second time. The first was on Italian soil; the second, in Brazil.
“It’s like a movie that’s replaying with a different script. Italy underestimated the disease in a way, not out of malice, but out of ignorance. We were the first country affected outside China. Then, the country was even praised for its quick measures. By March 11th, everything was already closed, with the exception of pharmacies and supermarkets. It was two months of lockdown,” says the Brazilian scientist.
“I have family in Brazil and I’m worried. People are not realizing the seriousness of the disease. In Italy, scientists have been heard,” she says. “I understand that Brazil is a very different country from European countries. It is more challenging to take drastic measures because of the number of people, health, and economic circumstances. But many people who could stay at home and companies that could have employees in home offices are not thinking about the disease”.
Tests
Infectologist Antonio Bandeira, director of the Brazilian Society of Infectology (SBI) and professor at the Faculty of Technology and Sciences (UNIFTC), recalls that Brazil has also not prepared itself for testing. The expert says that Brazil has conducted 340,000 tests while the number in the United States is two million.
Of the eight countries with the highest number of cases, Brazil is the one that tests the least. According to the number of tests per 1,000 inhabitants, submitted on Friday by the Covid-BR Observatory, the United States recorded an average of 24.4, Spain 28.9, Italy 38.3, Germany 32.8. The index in Brazil is only 1.4.
“Molecular tests (PCR) need to be increased. This is crucial. Testing allows detection of the number of patients, helps in health planning, and reduces underreporting. With testing, it is possible to determine home isolation so that the infected person does not contaminate other patients,” he explains.
Because of the lack of tests, Jean Pierre Schatzmann Peron, a leading researcher at the Pasteur/ USP Platform, which develops studies focusing on antibodies and immunopathogenesis, estimates that the number of people infected is three to five times higher in the country. “We can’t test everyone,” he summarizes.
Alexandre Cunha, infectologist of the Sabin Group and vice-president of the Infectology Society of the Federal District, says that the main concern should be with the speed in which the disease is spreading, and not necessarily with the absolute numbers.
“In countries where the epidemic was managed without overloading the health system, mortality was as expected. In countries with a reasonable hospital position, but where the health system collapsed, mortality was several times higher than in countries where the system sustained it,” he argues.
“Our major concern is the speed with which these cases are spreading and the absorption capacity of the health system. In Brazil, the situation must be analyzed in each municipality. What is good for one region may not be good for another. Each municipality will reach its peak at different times,” he says.
Source: Estadão Conteúdo