RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – According to a Brazilian armed forces crisis scenario, Venezuela and France are the greatest threats for the next 20 years.
After French President Emmanuel Macron described the Amazon as a “universal heritage”, President Jair Bolsonaro’s troops consider a “war over the Amazon” a potential event, the newspaper Folha de São Paulo reported on Friday, February 7th, referring to confidential documents from the armed forces command.
The paper writes that this is a hitherto secret draft of scenarios for the country’s defensive strategy. The relevant document was to be submitted to Congress in June. In the 45-page text, the military sets out realistic geopolitical considerations, but also “somewhat ludicrous assumptions” about the next 20 years, writes the Folha de São Paulo.
The draft strategy simulates four potential scenarios of future threats and alliances. These include the installation of US military bases and the stationing of the US Navy’s southern Atlantic fleet, wars with neighboring states such as Bolivia, Argentina and Venezuela, drug smuggling and attacks by Southeast Asian ultra-nationalists with the new coronavirus at a rock festival in Rio de Janeiro in 2039.
Particular focus is apparently on Venezuela. In a simulation classified as realistic, Venezuela invades its neighboring country Guyana using offensive missiles it has acquired from Russia and China. It intends to occupy territories that it has historically claimed.
The conflict spreads to the border region with Brazil, which is forced to enter the conflict. According to the document, Brazil is saved by “its missile defense shield, which the country has developed with Israeli help and North American components”.
In fact, in December 2019, there was an attack by armed groups on two Venezuelan armed force bases in the border region with Brazil and Guyana.
In all four scenarios, however, France is seen as the greatest threat. According to one of the simulations, in 2035 Paris “will request the United Nations to intervene in the Yanomami tribe’s region and will guarantee unlimited support to the liberation movement of this indigenous tribe”. Two years later, “France is sending a large part of its armed forces to French Guyana”, its overseas territory bordering Brazil to the north.
The document ignores the fact that France is Brazil’s most valuable military partner, even before the USA. Both countries have also signed substantial agreements on the construction of submarines and helicopters.
France became a target for the Brazilian military after its president Macron introduced the idea of an international statute for the protection of the Amazon in late August 2019. The French head of state called for the rainforest to be placed under international protection should the Brazilian government continue to refuse to fight the fires and clearings with sufficient determination.
“This is a question that should be raised when a sovereign state takes measures that are clearly against the interests of the planet,” Macron said on the sidelines of the G7 meeting.
In response, Bolsonaro accused Macron of “colonialist mentality” and labeled the proposal as undue interference in Brazil’s sovereignty. On the same day, the government in Brasília decided to reject G7 aid of US$ 20 million to fight the forest fires.
According to Bolsonaro, Macron only wanted to capitalize on this for political purposes. The G7 countries were making the issue worse than it was.
It is clear that the Brazilian armed forces are placing their “Achilles’ heel” in the vast and inaccessible Amazon region. “The rainforest is the heart of national military thinking,” the newspaper states.
The text further reflects the financial constraints of national defense. In 2020, the budget amounts to R$80 billion, the lowest in the past 15 years. Nearly 80 percent of this will be spent on personnel, leaving little room for new purchases.
In contrast, on Friday Bolsonaro’s government reactivated the 6th division, which had been closed in 2014. Based in Porto Alegre, nearly 8,000 soldiers are to patrol the border in the south. Commanding General Achilles Furlan Neto says the reactivation “is very important because it will increase the effectiveness of the forces in the south. The greater the number of operational commands, the better,” the general says. Both Uruguay and Argentina border Brazil’s south.