RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Towards the end of the year in which Lava Jato was challenged as never before, public support for the operation remains high, according to the latest Datafolha research.
According to a national survey by the institute, 81 percent of respondents believe that the investigation has not yet achieved its objective and that it should be continued. Another 15 percent said the investigation should end, and four percent did not know how to respond.
The survey interviewed 2,948 people in 176 municipalities across the country on December 5th and 6th. The margin of error is two percentage points plus or minus.
The investigations, launched in 2014 and which suffered a string of defeats in the Judiciary in 2019, has a high approval track record in Datafolha surveys in recent years. In April last year, after the arrest of former President Lula, 84 percent said it should be maintained.
In July this year, 55 percent of respondents said the work of officials involved in the operation was excellent or good. Only 18 percent considered the performance to be poor or terrible at the time.
In last week’s survey, Datafolha also asked respondents if corruption in the country will decrease, increase or remain the same after Lava Jato.
The result shows skepticism regarding the operation’s effects. For 47 percent, corruption will continue the same as ever, while 41 percent believe that the problem will decline. For ten percent, corruption will increase.
In April 2018, the figures were slightly more unfavorable to Lava Jato: 37 percent said that corruption would decrease and another 51 percent said that the problem would remain the sameimpri.
Throughout 2019, the operation suffered an unprecedented blow to its credibility due to disclosures of conversations in the Telegram App between prosecutors and former Judge Sérgio Moro -the current Minister of Justice of Jair Bolsonaro’s government.
The string of reports on The Intercept Brasil and other media outlets showed closeness between the former magistrate and prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol in measures of the investigation, which aroused criticism from Supreme Court (STF) justices and even politicians who used to defend the operation.
Lava Jato’s negative balance for the year was accomplished with the Supreme Court’s decision to bar imprisonment before appeals are exhausted, which enabled Lula to be released in November. Before that, the court had already overturned sentences in the operation and had ordered that cases be sent from federal courts to the specialized electoral court system.
Among Lava Jato’s setbacks are also the annulment of sentences by the Supreme Court due to the order of filing briefs by whistleblowers and co-defendants, the halting of investigations using data from the former COAF (Financial Activities Control Council), which has already been reversed, and the suspension of a huge reparation fund paid by Petrobras that would have been partly under the Prosecutor’s Office’s control.
Last week’s survey showed that those who are most critical of Jair Bolsonaro’s government are also more dubious about whether Lava Jato will reduce corruption.
Among those who consider the work of the president poor or terrible, 65 percent feel that corruption will persist the same as ever. The same rate emerges among voters who consider themselves leftist.
Throughout this year, Bolsonaro has seen a lot of wear and tear in this area, such as the investigation of embezzlement into the former cabinet of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and the denunciation of appropriation of public funds through PSL strawmen candidates – the party through which the president was elected and who left last month to try to create a new one, the ‘Aliança pelo Brasil’ (Alliance for Brazil).
In terms of respondents who claim to be right-wing, the perspective that corruption will decrease rises to 58 percent. Among those who rate Bolsonaro’s government as excellent or good, the rate rises further to 72 percent.
According to the institute, support for Lava Jato remains high even among those who prefer the PT, the party which most criticizes the operation, and among those who voted for the presidential candidate of 2018, Fernando Haddad. In both groups, 75 percent believe that Lava Jato has not yet achieved its goal and should proceed.
The survey also shows that 85 percent of men support the operation’s continuation, compared to 77 percent of women, and that support for Lava Jato tends to be somewhat lower among voters with a monthly family income of up to two minimum wages, -76 percent.
Voters with a higher level of education are the ones declaring most support for the operation’s continuation, at 87 percent; in the regional context, support for Lava Jato tends to be higher in the South (at 85 percent) than in the Northeast (76 percent); northeastern respondents are also the most skeptical of the Lava Jato impact on reducing corruption – only 34 percent agree with this statement.
SOME OF LAVA JATO’S DEFEATS IN THE YEAR
“Second instance” imprisonment
The Supreme Court ruled in November that it is unconstitutional for defendants with a second instance conviction to begin serving their sentences. The new understanding of the court enabled the release of ex-president Lula, who now awaits the decisions on his appeals to higher courts in the Guarujá (SP) triplex case.
Sentences overturned
The Supreme Court decided in October to overturn the sentence of former judge Sérgio Moro against a former manager of Petrobras, due to the order of filing briefs of whistleblowers and co-defendants in the case. Before that, in August, another conviction had already been reversed for this same reason by one of the panels that make up the court.
Validated pardon
In May, the Supreme Court decided to validate a Christmas pardon issued by then-President Michel Temer in 2017. The decision allowed not only the release of prisoners from the operation, such as former senator Gim Argello, but also put an end to restrictions that whistleblowers complied with.
Submission of cases to the electoral courts
In March, the Supreme Court decided that crimes such as corruption, when investigated together with election slush funds, should be sent from the federal courts to the electoral court.
Reversing pre-trial detention
The courts have decided to release prisoners accused by Lava Jato, like Beto Richa. On Thursday, December 12th, businessman Walter Faria, owner of the Petrópolis brewery and charged with bribery, was granted habeas corpus and released on bail.