Fears about China’s economy are changing global investment trends. A Bank of America survey shows a move towards U.S. stocks.
The survey included managers overseeing US$616 billion. None expect China’s economy to grow stronger, a shift from 78% in February.
Investments in emerging markets have dropped. The overweight exposure has fallen from 34% to 9% in September.
This is the lowest level since November last year.
In contrast, U.S. stock exposure has risen. It has gone from being underweight to 7% overweight.
The S&P 500 has climbed 17% this year. The MSCI Emerging Markets index only rose 2%.
Pessimism about China has increased since last year. China’s real estate is now seen as a risk for global credit issues.
Most investors still believe the global economy will avoid a recession. But 53% now prepare for a weaker economy in the next year, up from 45% in August.
The survey took place from September 1 to 7. It involved 222 managers.
Background
The shift towards U.S. investments isn’t new, but it’s speeding up. The U.S. has long been a safe haven for investors.
Yet, the rush has gained momentum due to China’s economic troubles. China was seen as an engine for global growth for years.
But issues like trade wars and debt have changed that view.
China’s economy also felt the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It did recover faster than most countries.
However, the recovery hasn’t eased investor concerns. High debt levels in China’s real estate are especially worrying.
Many fear it could trigger a global financial crisis.
Bank of America’s survey is telling for market sentiment. It captures the mood of investors at a volatile time.
Other surveys and reports confirm this trend. Investors are opting for what they see as safer, more reliable markets.
The focus now is less on high returns and more on stability.