Weekly Economic Events and Indicators in LatAm: Feb 5 – Feb 9, 2024

This week, the spotlight is on the release of January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico.

Mexico may see an uptick in inflation, driven by food and energy costs.

In contrast, Chile expects a slowdown, with food prices rising less sharply, aiming for a 3% +/- 1 percentage point target range.

Analysts project Colombia’s inflation to slow yet stay above the central bank’s forecast and the 3% +/- 1 percentage point target ceiling.

Brazil could report a decrease in inflation, nearing its 3% +/- 1.5 percentage point target ceiling.

Furthermore, central bank sessions in Mexico and Peru this week will decide on interest rate adjustments.

Mexico’s rate is likely to stay unchanged, whereas Peru might opt for a cut, showcasing a cautious approach.

Event highlights include:

Brazil

Published on February 6, the minutes from the Central Bank’s January 31 policy meeting detail a rate cut to 11.25%, reinforcing the bank’s stance.

Expected on February 7, January’s trade balance might indicate slight export increases, possibly setting a 12-month surplus record of $101 billion.

Scheduled for February 8, the January CPI is expected to register at 4.43% year-on-year, indicating a slow decline in inflation.

Chile

Trade balance data for January, anticipated on February 7, may reveal a $2.14 billion surplus, indicating a slow recovery.

Analysts anticipate the January CPI, scheduled for release on February 8, to drop to 3.4% from 3.9%, reaching its lowest level since 2021.

Colombia

The central bank’s January 31 meeting minutes, released on February 5, will disclose a 25 basis point rate cut.

Analysts project that the January CPI, due on February 7, will drop to 8.65% year-on-year, remaining above the target range.

Mexico

The January CPI, expected on February 8, is projected to climb to 4.9% from 4.7%.

The Central Bank’s policy meeting on the same day should keep the reference rate at 11.25%.

December’s industrial production figures, due on February 9, are likely to show a 0.9% year-on-year increase.

Peru

The Central Bank’s policy meeting on February 8 is expected to reduce the reference rate to 6.25% from 6.50%, continuing a trend of cautious rate cuts.

These events underscore the diverse economic landscapes across Latin America, highlighting the delicate balance between growth, inflation, and monetary policy adjustments.