Brazil’s National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) saw a 0.56% increase in December, as the Brazilian stats agency IBGE reported.
This rise was greater than November’s 0.28% and surpassed the forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had expected a 0.50% increase.
This increase brought the IPCA’s total rise in 2023 to 4.62%. This rate fits within the inflation target the National Monetary Council (CMN) set.
The target was a 3.25% increase, with a 1.5 percentage point variance allowed.
The IBGE’s report shows that prices rose in all nine surveyed groups of products and services.
The food and beverages group led these increases, rising from November’s 0.63% to 1.11% in December.
This sector had the most substantial impact on the overall figure, contributing 0.23 percentage points.
André Almeida, an IBGE manager, attributed these changes to weather patterns affecting food production.
He noted that products like tubers, vegetables, and fruits were particularly affected in nature.
Rising airfares
Transportation costs also contributed significantly, especially due to rising airfares. December marked the fourth consecutive month of increases for this sub-item.
According to the IBGE, it had the most substantial single impact on the country’s inflation.
However, there was a decline in fuel prices across the board. Diesel, ethanol, gasoline, and vehicular gas all saw price drops, with gasoline’s decrease being particularly notable.
Almeida emphasized that gasoline’s price fall played a key role in moderating overall inflation, as it’s a major component of the IPCA.
Investors closely watch these inflation figures to gauge the Central Bank’s monetary policy.
In response to the economic climate, the Central Bank reduced the Selic interest rate by 2 percentage points in 2023, bringing it down to 11.75% annually.
The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, scheduled for the end of January, is expected to see further rate cuts.
The latest Focus report predicts a reduction of 0.50 percentage points, setting the new rate at 11.25% per annum.