Two weeks before Argentina’s presidential election runoff, voter surveys depict an uncertain battle for the November 19 ballot.
Sergio Massa, the leftist coalition’s Economy Minister from Unión por la Patria, leads in two polls.
Libertarian candidate Javier Milei from La Libertad Avanza ties with Massa in three others.
Massa won the first round on October 22 with 36.68% of valid votes, while Milei secured 29.98%.
Diverse Poll Results
Recent Atlas Intel polling shows Milei slightly ahead with 52% of valid votes. Massa trails at 48%.
Given the 2% margin of error, they are at a statistical tie.
This survey included 3,218 participants between November 1 and 3. President Alberto Fernández’s low approval rating of 11% may sway Massa’s prospects.
Argentina’s high inflation and debt management issues have eroded the government’s popularity.
The country made a $2.6 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on October 25, addressing its debt obligations for the month.
Close Projections
A Zuban Córdoba survey, reported by Clarin newspaper, places Massa slightly ahead with 45.4% in the runoff, Milei close at 43.1%.
Within the 2.19% error margin, they’re tied. Conducted with 2,000 participants on October 28 and 29, the survey indicates a high rejection rate: 56.7% for Massa, 54.3% for Milei.
Among followers of third-place Patricia Bullrich, 28.9% reject Milei, yet 45% would support him.
Government Support and Opposition
An Analogias survey pitches Massa against Milei with 42.4% to 34.3%.
This phone survey of 1,954 Argentinians, from October 23 to 25, suggests Massa’s support comes from various sectors.
About one-third of Juan Schiaretti’s voters, 60% of Myriam Bregman’s, and nearly 15% of Bullrich’s may favor Massa.
Massa’s growing appeal among women, middle-aged groups, and less-educated individuals is evident.
Moreover, 52% support the idea of a national unity government to address Argentina’s challenges.
Tight Race According to CB Consultora
CB Consultora’s data indicates a tight race with Milei at 50.7% and Massa at 49.3% for the runoff.
Of Bullrich’s first-round voters, 46% lean towards Milei, with 14% for Massa.
Surveying 1,715 Argentinians on October 23 and 24, it presents a 95% confidence level with a 2.4% margin of error.
Economic Struggles
Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy and the world’s 22nd, has a GDP of $632.77 billion (World Bank, 2022).
It’s Brazil’s third-largest trading partner, with a $2.24 billion trade surplus for Brazil in the previous year.
Inflation hit a 21-year monthly high at 12.7% in September, with an annual rate of 138.3%.
The Central Bank raised interest rates to 133% in October, aiming to encourage saving and control price rises.
However, dollar reserves dropped from $44.6 billion at 2023’s start to $28 billion by August 31, a sharp decrease from the 2019 peak of $77.4 billion under President Mauricio Macri.
Rising Poverty
Argentina’s poverty rate climbed to 40.1% in the first half of 2023, a significant rise from 36.5% in the same period last year.
This increase suggests about 1.7 million more people living in poverty nationwide.
With 62.4% of Argentinians earning income in the first half of 2023, the poverty challenge remains substantial amidst the economic backdrop.