In 2024, experts expect a drop in Brazil’s grain exports. Despite this, revenues might not fall.
In 2023 and prior years, Brazil’s grain exports consistently grew, positioning the country as a key global supplier in the agricultural market.
Analysts believe price adjustments in most commodities and rises in some agricultural sectors will balance out the decrease in volume.
They argue these factors will support Brazil’s export values next year.
Agriculture will likely keep its trade balance share. By the end of 2023, it should represent 49% of Brazil’s exports.
José Ronaldo Souza Júnior, a notable economist, thinks it’s unlikely that export quantities will increase in 2024.
He cites a smaller grain harvest as the main reason. Higher prices for goods abroad may make up for this dip in volume.
Gabriela Faria, another economist, also sees a decline in export volumes next year.
She points to a smaller harvest and competition from countries like the United States and Argentina.
Despite this, she expects strong revenue from these exports, depending on how commodity prices fare.
The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) predicts an 8.6% fall in agricultural exports. Still, exports will remain vital to Brazil’s trade.
The AEB warns that actual losses might exceed current expectations. They also note that while commodity prices are appealing now, there’s no certainty they will stay the same.
Price dynamics and global factors
The Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA) estimates a slight increase in 2024’s agricultural exports.
They credit this to a price recovery in certain sectors. They also mention global economic slowdowns and increased competition as influential factors.
Geopolitical issues, like Middle East conflicts and US-China tensions, could affect costs and shipping.
The CNA also discusses the potential impact of new policies from Argentina’s President on regional trade.
Despite challenges in Brazil’s 2024 agricultural export volume, analysts believe price dynamics and global factors will be crucial in sustaining export revenue.