Bank of America predicts a shift in Brazil’s trade dynamics for 2024, foreseeing a slowdown from the record trade surplus of 2023 to a higher current account deficit.
This change is attributed to a surge in imports of goods and services, fueled by a robust internal demand and the ongoing movement of funds via cryptocurrencies.
Despite the anticipated decrease, exports are expected to remain strong, with the extractive sector likely cushioning a drop in agribusiness production.
In 2023, Brazil’s trade balance hit a peak, signaling a prosperous phase for the country’s external accounts.
Yet, 2024 presents a nuanced picture; the Bank of America’s analysis suggests a positive, albeit reduced, trade outcome.
This forecast hinges on the interplay of continued strong exports against the backdrop of rising imports, further influenced by domestic demand shifts and cryptocurrency outflows.
Economists David Beker and Natacha Perez, affiliated with the bank, emphasize the mixed signals in Brazil’s economic outlook.
They note that the solid performance of exports, especially from the extractive sectors, provides a counterbalance to the expected decrease in agribusiness production.
Additionally, an uptick in foreign investment is expected, spurred by a global environment that is becoming less restrictive.
This complex scenario highlights Brazil’s trade landscape undergoing a significant transition.
Robust export activity confronts a rising tide of imports amidst evolving domestic and global economic conditions.
Background
In March, Brazil experienced a notable 30.4% reduction in its trade surplus from February, landing at $7.48 billion.
The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) at the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Foreign Trade (MDIC) reported this decline.
A 14.8% decrease in exports, totaling $27.98 billion, and a 7.1% drop in imports to $20.50 billion contributed to this downturn.
The quarter ended with a $19.08 billion surplus, a 22.2% year-over-year increase. Exports grew by 3.2%, reaching $78.27 billion, while imports fell slightly by 1.8% to $59.19 billion.
Agricultural exports decreased by 20.8% to $7.14 billion. The extractive industry saw a more pronounced fall of 23.9%, summing up to $6.42 billion.