Oil Surplus Looms as Demand Slows, Supplies Grow
The IEA predicts a global oil surplus as demand slows and non-OPEC+ supplies increase.
Last quarter’s global consumption growth slowed by 35%, especially due to China’s economic slowdown.
The IEA expects a 1.2 million barrels per day demand increase in 2024, half of the previous year’s growth rate.
Global oil demand’s momentum is waning, signaling the end of the post-pandemic demand surge.
Non-OPEC+ countries, including the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, will boost supplies by 1.6 million barrels daily, leading to a slight inventory rise this quarter.
Oil prices, stable at $81 per barrel, reflect ample supplies despite Middle East tensions and Red Sea shipment threats.
A “massive” 1.4 million barrels daily supply drop last month, due to winter storms and OPEC+ cuts, might be temporary as non-OPEC+ growth resumes in Q2.
OPEC+ cuts were less than promised, falling short by 570,000 barrels daily.
If cuts ease by March’s end, surplus risks grow. Riyadh hints at extending cuts, with OPEC+ to decide soon.
IEA’s Fatih Birol expects a stable oil market and moderate price changes in 2024, indicating a shift towards supply abundance and market balance.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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