Brazil’s economy should recover last decade’s level only in 2023 – FecomércioSP
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The São Paulo State Federation of Trade of Goods, Services and Tourism (FecomercioSP) said that the Brazilian economy should recover the level of the beginning of the last decade only in 2023.
In a statement, the organization points out that the 4.1% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 is not “the worst news about the Brazilian economic crisis.”
FecomercioSP argues that the last significant growth of the Brazilian GDP occurred in 2013, with a 3% increase. From then on, a sequence of stagnation, drops, and shy rebounds followed – with 0.5% growth in 2014; shrinkage of 3.5% and 3.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively; and single-digit increases in 2017 (1.3%), 2018 (1.1%), and 2019 (1.1%).
“Given these figures, it is possible to say that the country will only recover the level of the beginning of the past decade in 2023 – if it sustains an annual growth rate of at least 2% until then,” said the organization in a statement.
According to FecomercioSP, the prospect of a rebound in 2023 may not materialize due to the new drop in household consumption, in the context of the pandemic in the country. “In addition, there are still long-term doubts about the federal government’s ability to implement a fiscal austerity policy by cutting expenses,” the federation stated.
According to the organization, even if GDP were to grow between 3% and 3.5% in 2021, it would be more closely linked to the 4.1% drop in 2020 than to a sign of actual economic rebound. “In other words, if nothing goes wrong from now on, Brazil will only return to the 2013 level exactly ten years later. Therefore, it is a true lost decade.”
For FecomercioSP, a “genuine reform of the State” would help the Brazilian economic recovery. “By decreasing taxes, accelerating investments and containing the rise in inflation through a low interest rate policy,” the organization sees a path to a better scenario in the coming years.
Source: InfoMoney
Brazilian residents face the second-most restrictions on entry abroad during the pandemic
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Citizens and residents of the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa are facing the most restrictions on entering other countries because of the Covid pandemic, according to a survey conducted by Folha de S.Paulo newspaper based on data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Among 150 countries analyzed, 25 have placed specific restrictions on people from the United Kingdom, 17 on Brazil, and 17 on South Africa.
The total considers places that have banned entry of passengers who have been in these countries before traveling or have banned flights coming from them, and only includes restrictions currently in force.
Some others, like India, only require extra testing or quarantine for travelers coming from these three countries, but entry is allowed if passengers provide confirmation that they are not infected with the virus.
The other 27 at the top of the list are European countries, with Portugal (13 vetoes) and Ireland (12) leading. Several governments have announced block restrictions on the continent’s nations, which have free movement between them, since the majority are part of the Schengen Area.
The measures against specific countries gained strength in late 2020, as a means to contain the spread of new, more contagious virus variants. Scientists have now detected strains in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa.
IATA data show that at least 55 governments maintain near-total traveler entry bans, with few exceptions, such as access to their own citizens and residents.
Saudi Arabia, which has banned entry in general, has imposed an additional restriction: even residents who have passed through the UK, Brazil, or South Africa in the past 14 days are not allowed entry.
In South America, travelers coming from Brazil face restrictions in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. Access to the US has been banned since May 2020 except for US citizens. Brazil is also subject to restrictions in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Austria, Spain, Iraq, Madagascar, Morocco, Moldova, Oman, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Tunisia, and Turkey.
In turn, Brazil has banned flights from South Africa and the United Kingdom since January, and is blocking entry to passengers who have been to these two countries in the past 14 days. Exceptions are made for Brazilian citizens and residents, but they are required to submit a negative Covid test and comply with quarantine.
“Studies conducted on the ebola and zika outbreaks show that border closures are generally palliative. These measures only buy time, some two or three weeks, but are unable to prevent the import of pathogens,” points out Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Infogripe (national respiratory disease monitoring system, linked to the Ministry of Health) and researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation.
“It is a permeable barrier, because some groups, such as diplomats, can enter, and the circulation of goods continues,” he says. The researcher explains that ideally there should be a combination of strategies, including the control of transmission in the location where the new strain originated, testing, and isolating travelers.
The United States, the country with the highest number of Covid cases in the world -28.7 million-, is the target of restrictions from only three countries: Saudi Arabia, Madagascar, and Moldova. India, the second most infected nation -11.1 million- is also banned in three countries (Saudi Arabia, Madagascar, and Iraq).
“Reciprocity is the most valuable principle of diplomacy. But, as this is an exceptional moment, I don’t believe that a policy of total isolation is favorable, because it could create obstacles to importing supplies, including the vaccine itself,” says Fernanda Magnotta, coordinator of the International Relations course at FAAP, a private Brazilian university.
Border closures also affect sectors such as trade and tourism, whose entrepreneurs may push for a reopening. Furthermore, barriers can be used for political purposes. “Governments can impose them as a means to show that they are protecting their societies from external dangers. It’s a form of nationalism,” says Magnotta.
“Ideally, Brazil should govern the crisis well. The more we fail to do our homework, the worse our international reputation gets,” the coordinator notes.
Brazil, which is facing its worst moment since the pandemic began, is fertile ground for the emergence of new strains, which could lead to new external blockades.
“The more cases occur, the greater the amount of mutations. And, as a result, the likelihood of a new variant emerging that will become stronger and manage to escape previous immunity or the protection of some of the vaccines grows,” alerts Gomes, from Infogripe. “With fewer cases in the country, this is much easier to control.”
Brazil’s agricultural production feeds 10% of the world, says EMBRAPA study
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s agribusiness is responsible for feeding around 800 million people, or approximately 10% of the global population, according to a study released on Thursday by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), which assessed data based on the country’s basic production of grains and oilseeds.
According to Elisio Contini and Adalberto Aragão, responsible for the study, the figure considers that grains and oilseeds are the basis of human nutrition – for direct consumption, processed foods or as feed for meat production.
“In terms of people fed (by Brazil), according to authorities’ reports and technical papers, the figures ranged from 1 billion to 1.5 billion people. We decided to check these figures, starting from Brazil’s grain and oilseed production compared to the world’s,” Contini said in a statement.
The authors considered two perspectives for the result: one, which takes into account the physical production of grains, pointed Brazil as being responsible for feeding some 637 million people in 2020. The other, which aggregates to physical production its respective value, points to 772.600 million people fed by local production last year.
Contini and Aragão consider the second result as being closer to the accurate answer, given that it considers the multiplication of international product prices, as measured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by the local grain production.
Depending on price and harvest variation, the results fluctuate according to the year studied -in 2019, another period considered by the study, the estimate of the population fed by Brazil reached 809.472 million, because of prices.
“Thus, it can be stated that around 800 million people are fed by Brazil, including the Brazilian population,” stated the authors, who also mention a global population of around 7.76 billion people in 2020.
In addition to the new calculation, the study also pointed out that Brazil’s share in the global food market jumped from US$20.6 billion to about US$100 billion in the past ten years, mainly in meat, soy, corn, cotton and forest products.
The calculations also showed that Brazil’s share in world grain production grew from 6% in 2011 to 8% in 2020, according to EMBRAPA, with national agriculture and livestock growing as a result of strong demand from China, Brazil’s main buyer of soybeans and meat.
According to estimates by the National Supply Company (CONAB), Brazil should produce a record harvest of 268.3 million tons of grains in 2020/21, up 4.4% year-on-year.
Source: Uol Economia
Brazil records 1,786 deaths in 24 hours; total reaches 261,000 (March 4th)
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The country has registered 10,796,506 cases and 261,188 Covid-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to the media outlet consortium. Cases and deaths are on an upward trend.
The media consortium has released a new survey on the coronavirus pandemic situation in Brazil based on data from state health secretariats, as updated on Thursday, March 4th, at 8 PM.
The country registered 1,786 Covid-19 deaths in the last 24 hours – a slight drop from the preceding two record-hitting days since the pandemic began – reaching a total of 261,188 deaths. This brings the rolling average of deaths in Brazil over the past 7 days to 1,361, still rising. There was a 30% variation when compared to the average of 14 days ago, showing an upward trend in deaths from the disease.
It is now 43 straight days with the rolling average of deaths over the 1,000 mark, 7 days over 1,100, and for the 5th day the figure is over 1,200. Since Saturday, six straight new records have been set. Last week’s rolling average sequence:
Friday (February 26th): 1,148
Saturday (February 27th): 1,180 (record)
Sunday (February 28th): 1,208 (record)
Monday (March 1st): 1,223 (record)
Tuesday (March 2nd): 1,274 (record)
Wednesday (March 3rd): 1,332 (record)
Thursday (March 4th): 1,361 (record)
In terms of confirmed cases, since the start of the pandemic 10,796,506 Brazilians have or are infected with the novel coronavirus, with 74,285 of these confirmed in the last day. The rolling average over the last 7 days stood at 57,517 new daily diagnoses. This represents a 27% variation from the cases recorded in two weeks, suggesting an upward trend in infections too.
Sixteen states and the Federal District are registering an increase in deaths: PR, RS, SC, SP, DF, GO, MS, AC, TO, AL, BA, CE, MA, PB, PI, RN, and SE.
Summary for Brazil, March 4th
Total deaths: 261,188
Deaths registered in 24 hours: 1,786
Average number of new deaths in the last 7 days: 1,361 (variation in 14 days: +30%)
Total confirmed cases: 10,796,506
Record of confirmed cases in 24 hours: 74,285
Average of new cases in the last 7 days: 57,517 per day (14-day variation: +27%)
State trends in number of cases
Rising: (16 states and the Federal District): PR, RS, SC, SP, DF, GO, MS, AC, TO, AL, BA, CE, MA, PB, PI, RN and SE
Stable (8 states): ES, MG, RJ, MT, PA, RO, RR and PE
Declining (2 states): AM and AP
Vaccination
The balance of Covid-19 vaccination on Thursday, March 4th, shows that 7,671,525 people have already had their first shot of the vaccine against Covid-19, according to data released by 8 PM. The number represents 3.62% of the Brazilian population.
The second dose has already been administered to 2,463,894 people (1.16% of the country’s population) in all states and in the Federal District. In total, 10,135,419 doses have been administered nationwide.
Media outlet consortium
The data on coronavirus cases and deaths in Brazil was collected after an unprecedented partnership between G1, O Globo, Extra, O Estado de S.Paulo, Folha de S.Paulo, and UOL, which have been working together since June 8th to compile the necessary data in the 26 states and in the Federal District.
Source: G1
Argentine YPF reports swing to profit in fourth-quarter, ending dire year on brighter note
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Argentine state-owned oil company YPF on Thursday, March 5th, reported a 2020 fourth quarter net profit that reversed a trend of quarterly losses over the last year as the coronavirus pandemic hit the oil price.
The company, which is spearheading development of the South American nation’s huge Vaca Muerta shale fields, reported a net profit of US$539 million in the fourth quarter and closed out 2020 with a total loss of US$1.098 billion.
“2020 was marked by the impact of the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak and the drop in oil prices,” the firm said in a statement. “It was an extremely challenging year for the global oil and gas industry, and we were no exception.”
YPF in February restructured some $247 million of its 2021 bond maturing in March, receiving support from almost 60% of its bondholders. That breakthrough was seen as helping clear the way for the company to complete a debt restructuring amid a wider economic crisis in Argentina.
Latin America increasingly falling behind worldwide transition to clean energy
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – As oil majors and developed nations push for a faster transition to clean energy, much of Latin America is struggling just to cover its basic supply needs for fossil fuels, which is forcing some countries to actually rely more on dirty energy sources.
Experts speaking at this year’s all-virtual CERAWeek conference said a portion of Latin America could fall behind in the energy transition due to outdated policies and resource nationalism in nations like Venezuela and Mexico, combined with an urgent need for cheap imported fuel.
“In this moment, when the energy transition is being accelerated by large oil firms and governments amid political pressure, Europe and now the United States are taking the lead through carbon neutralization measures. I don’t see policies as aggressive in this region,” Decio Oddone, CEO of Brazil’s oil and gas producer Enauta S.A. told Reuters.
In 2018, Latin American nations combined emitted as much carbon dioxide (CO2) as Russia, the world’s fourth-largest CO2 emitter, according to International Energy Agency data.
The region’s imports of motor fuels, natural gas, fuel oil and diesel for power generation have risen consistently, interrupted only by the coronavirus pandemic that sapped fuel demand worldwide.
Last year, Latin America imported 2.69 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products from the United States, its largest source of oil imports, according to a Reuters analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
The 2020 volume represented a 12% decline from the record 3.05 million bpd in 2019, but still up 88% from a decade earlier.
Last month’s deep freeze in Texas knocked out natural gas supply to Northern Mexico, leaving households without electricity and forcing hundreds of factories to slow down or close. That has motivated the Latin American country’s government to return to coal and fuel oil for power generation.
In February, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ordered state power company Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) to reopen thermoelectrical plants set for dismantling, while questioning the country’s dependence on U.S. natural gas as the primary fuel for electricity.
“CFE has important investment plans today, but they do not include renewables, power transmission or distribution,” Tania Ortiz, CEO of Mexico’s energy company IEnova, said at the CERAWEeek conference, organized by IHS Markit.
“In order to reach Mexico’s energy security, understood as having access to clean reliable cheap energy, we need to have the private and public sectors working together.”
Mexico’s final power consumption grew 2.3% to almost 275,000 gigawatts per hour (GWh) in 2019, and the government forecasted a 1.9% annual increase through 2035. Generation must grow accordingly to secure the nation’s position as a manufacturing and exporting powerhouse, Ortiz said.
Oddone recognized there were exceptions in a region dominated by fossil fuels: he mentioned efforts on solar energy by Peru and Chile, as well as Brazil’s large hydroelectric capacity and its aggressive bet on biofuels, including state-run Petrobras’ new drive to supply biofuels to the aviation industry.
In Colombia, President Ivan Duque is pushing companies to dramatically cut CO2 emissions while expanding non-conventional renewable energies.
However, Mexico has delayed planned reforms to limit emissions from motor fuels, including a regulation requiring truck makers to switch engines to ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Meanwhile, Venezuela, hit by underinvestment and U.S. sanctions, has not moved to reduce pollution from motor fuels since its state-run firm PDVSA removed lead from gasoline in 2005.
“This is a very heterogeneous region,” said Armando Zamora, head of Colombia’s oil regulator. “Those countries with a market vision are progressing (toward energy transition), but that is not the case where energy nationalism prevails.”
Sinovac vaccine may not trigger sufficient antibody response to Brazil variant: study
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Sinovac Biotech’s COVID-19 vaccine may not trigger sufficient antibody responses against a new variant identified in Brazil, a small-sample lab study showed.
The emergence of variants of the new coronavirus has raised concern that vaccines and treatments that were developed based on previous strains may not work as robustly.
Plasma samples taken from eight people vaccinated with Sinovac’s CoronaVac failed to efficiently neutralize the P.1 lineage variant, or 20J/501Y.V3, researchers said in a paper published on Monday ahead of peer-review.
“These results suggest that P.1 virus might escape from neutralizing antibodies induced by… CoronaVac,” researchers at the University of São Paulo in Brazil, Washington University School of Medicine in the United States, and a few other institutions said in the paper.
CoronaVac is being used in mass vaccination drives in countries including China, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey.
Although the study suggests re-infection may occur in vaccinated individuals, the protection given by CoronaVac against severe COVID-19 may indicate that other mechanisms in the human immune system, aside from antibodies, contribute to reducing disease severity, researchers said.
A Sinovac spokesman was not immediately available for comment. Chief executive Yin Weidong said in a program aired by state-backed broadcaster CGTN on Thursday the company is “fully capable” of using current research and manufacturing capacity to develop a new vaccine against variants if necessary.
He also said the process would take much less time than it took to develop CoronaVac.
The Brazilian Livestreams Guide for Friday, March 5, 2021
LIVESTREAM:
Orquestra Sinfônica do Estado de São Paulo (online) – The Symphonic Orchestra of São Paulo State will present a live-streamed concert this Friday, when the National Day of Classic Music is celebrated.
The orchestra will play Brett Dean’s “Testament” and Beethoven’s third symphony, named “Eroica”, at 8:30 PM.
Orquestra Sinfônica do Estado de São Paulo – live on Osesp’s Youtube channel.
Check the event for further details.
LIVESTREAM:
Márcia Castro (online) – Sesc will host tonight the Bahian singer Márcia Castro.
Márcia, who blends tropical rhythms and electronic music elements, will perform at 7 PM on Sesc’s Youtube channel.
Márcia Castro – live on Sesc São Paulo’s Youtube channel.
Check the event for further details.
LIVESTREAM:
Amigos da Onça (online) – Every Friday, the Circo Voador No Ar project livestreams the best shows that happened in the house in recent years.
Tonight, the audience will be reviving the 2017 show of the Carnival bloco Amigos da Onça, which will be streamed at 10 PM.
Amigos da Onça – live on Circo Voador’s Youtube channel.
Check the event for further details.
To have an event included in the Nightlife Guide, please e-mail:
events[at]riotimesonline[dot]com.
Brazil in talks for 63 million Moderna COVID-19 shots by January 2022: document
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s Health Ministry is in talks to receive 13 million doses of Moderna Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine in 2021, plus an additional 50 million for delivery by the end of January 2022, according to a ministry document seen by Reuters.
An initial 1 million Moderna shots would arrive by the end of July, according to the document, which was delivered to senators by a ministry official discussing immunization plans with lawmakers.
The ministry’s tentative vaccine schedule reflects growing concern in Brasilia about the scale of the pandemic in Brazil.
President Jair Bolsonaro’s government has come under fire for a slow and patchy vaccine rollout, while the right-wing populist has refused to take a vaccine himself. Brazil is setting daily records for COVID-19 deaths as other countries in North America and Western Europe are seeing outbreaks ebb.
That has spurred the ministry into putting aside its qualms over some of the contractual terms of companies such as Pfizer and moving ahead with purchases to slow an outbreak stoked by an infectious new homegrown variant.
The ministry document shows that officials are also in talks to receive an initial 2 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of May, with a first tranche of 16.9 million doses of Janssen’s shot by the end of September.
On Thursday, the government said it intended to buy 100 million doses from Pfizer Inc and 38 million from Janssen, the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson.