In October, Argentina’s elections reach a crucial point with right-wing candidate Javier Milei in the lead.
He won the most votes in the August primaries. Now, he could clinch a first-round victory on October 22.
A recent El País survey shows Milei with 35.3% support. Leftist candidate Sergio Massa trails with 30%.
Patricia Bullrich, a center-right contender, has 25.9%. If this trend holds, Milei and Massa will face a second round on November 19.
Interestingly, Milei boasts lower voter rejection rates. One CB Consultancy poll puts him at 47.2% maximum support, with a 44.1% rejection rate.
Conversely, Bullrich can reach 40.7% but faces a 47.9% rejection rate. Massa scores even lower with 37% potential votes and a 52.2% rejection rate.
For a first-round win, Milei needs 45% of votes or 40% with a 10-point lead over the next candidate.
During the first televised debate, his opponents didn’t impress. Massa apologized for government blunders, while Bullrich lacked clear plans for tackling inflation.
Milei met performance expectations in the debate. He’s unlikely to lose votes. His strong primary showing boosts his chances.
No major post-debate polls are out, but online metrics suggest Milei did better than his rivals.
Meanwhile, the demand for U.S. dollars is rising. On one day, the parallel dollar rate spiked 35 pesos.
Investors worry about Argentina’s economy post-election. The World Bank forecasts a 2.5% economic decline this year for Argentina.
Milei wants to dollarize Argentina’s economy and dissolve its Central Bank. However, many economists find his plans unworkable.
Background
The Argentine election has broader implications. Locally, voters grapple with economic instability.
Skyrocketing inflation and unemployment levels worry many. Milei’s dollarization proposal is a hot topic. It polarizes opinion, fueling heated debates among citizens and experts alike.
Globally, Argentina’s election could signal political shifts. Latin America has seen alternating right and left-wing governments in recent years.
A Milei win could inspire similar movements in neighboring countries. This could lead to regional policy changes, affecting trade and diplomacy.
In comparison, the U.S. 2020 election also featured high voter polarization. Like Milei, Donald Trump also had controversial economic proposals.
However, Argentina’s economic woes present a unique electoral backdrop. Ultimately, this election is a critical moment for Argentina and may echo far beyond its borders.