The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) believes Mexico will grow 3% in 2023 and has adapted its estimates.
It is also positive about 2024, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s final year.
Banxico estimates the economy will increase by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2023. It has a central estimate of 3%, higher than the previous 2.3%.
This aligns with the Mexican Ministry of Finance’s expected 3% increase by year’s end.
Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio suggested the country’s economy might surpass 3% this year.
Also, Banxico’s projection is consistent with most analysts’ opinions in a recent Citibanamex survey on August 22.
Most of them anticipated a 2.9% increase in the economy for this year.
For 2024, Banxico anticipates the economy expanding between 1.3% and 2.9%. Its main estimate is 2.1%, higher than the previous 1.6%.
The central bank noted that the strength of the Mexican economy led to a higher-than-expected increase in the second quarter.
This resulted in higher expectations for the entirety of 2023.
This also means there is a stronger base for expansion next year. So, the expected change in GDP for 2024 has been revised upwards.
Even though the anticipated expansion of US industrial production in 2024 was slightly reduced, this could impact Mexico’s economic activity.
However, the resilience of the Mexican economy is expected to offset this.
So, a reduction in economic activity is still anticipated compared to the recently observed activity.
This is consistent with the expected behavior of the US economy.
However, the demand within the country is expected to continue to bolster Mexico’s economic activity.