In October, Latin American currencies withstood a volatile dollar and outperformed other emerging markets in 2023.
Excluding the unique situation of the Argentine peso, these currencies showed remarkable stability.
For instance, the Chilean peso encountered challenges. The Central Bank of Chile responded by pausing rate cuts and stopping reserve purchases to avoid inflation risks.
Balanz Capital highlighted that U.S. rate hikes and smaller interest rate differentials in Latin America led to currency depreciation.
As a result, local central banks might slow down their rate cuts if high rates persist in developed economies. Chile followed this prediction.
China’s economic slowdown could also stress regional currencies by affecting trade.
Let’s look at the October performance across major economies:
- Brazil’s currency remained stable, with the dollar starting and ending at nearly the same value.
- The Mexican peso saw a slight dollar appreciation of 3.6% in October but gained 7.44% overall in 2023.
- The Colombian peso had a minor dollar rise in October, but it has strengthened significantly by 15.1% this year.
- The Chilean peso experienced a small dollar rise of 0.66% in October. However, it has depreciated by 5.4% throughout the year.
- In Peru, the dollar rose 1.43% against the sol in October and has slightly appreciated this year.
Comparing this to other emerging economies:
- The U.S. dollar appreciated by 6.06% against the Chinese yuan and 6.73% against the South Korean won this year.
- The Indian rupee saw a minimal dollar rise of 0.63%.
Argentine Peso
In contrast, the Argentine peso is the second-weakest currency globally, trailing only behind the Lebanese pound.
The official exchange rate has increased by 97.6%, with the Central Bank fixing it since August. However,
in alternative markets like the MEP dollar, the increase has been a staggering 156% this year.