In Colombia, inflation remains high, yet its recent trajectory indicates a potential decrease in interest rates by the Banco de la República.
The central bank’s recent meetings have shown a divided vote on reducing interest rates. Notably, two co-directors have consistently advocated for a 25 basis point cut.
At a recent forum in Bogotá, Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla suggested that a rate cut in December could be likely if October inflation dropped the annual variation to 10.6%.
The National stats agency DANE reported a slight increase in monthly inflation, resulting in a yearly rate of 10.48%, just below Bonilla’s threshold.
This implies that Bonilla might support a rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on December 19.
President Gustavo Petro responded positively to the inflation rate dropping more than anticipated.
He emphasized the shift from rising to falling inflation under his leadership. Petro also argued against maintaining high-interest rates, urging a reduction at the next opportunity.
Anif, a financial analysis firm, believes DANE’s latest data could lead to monetary policy relaxation.
October’s annual inflation of 10.48% continues the downward trend, encouraging a potential easing of the central bank’s policy by year-end.
Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, shares this view. He predicts year-end inflation between 9% and 9.2%, decreasing gradually next year.
Olarte suggests that economic slowdown, high-interest rates, and a declining exchange rate are aiding this deceleration.
Consequently, he expects the Banco de la República to consider lowering the reference interest rate in December.
Indexation Effects
However, Olarte warns of ongoing indexation effects, like significant rent increases impacting the household basket.
Bancolombia highlighted the return of annual goods inflation to single digits at 9.5% after 14 months.
The firm also noted a significant moderation in the contribution of regulated segments to October’s monthly inflation.
In conclusion, Bancolombia anticipates a closing inflation of 9.6% for 2023. This aligns with the potential for an initial interest rate cut by the Banco de la República in December.