Forecasts for 2024 show a global GDP deceleration, expecting growth between 2.1% and 2.7%, with Brazil’s rate anticipated to fall below this average.
The U.S.’s monetary tightening and China’s real estate market decline are influencing these predictions.
Fitch Ratings foresees the most significant deceleration, while PwC predicts a smaller deficit.
Both highlight the slowing of China’s property market and higher interest rates in the U.S. and Europe as key factors.
Fitch Ratings’ Chief Economist, Brian Coulton, identifies these as new threats to global growth. The OECD underscores the impact of high inflation on the world economy.
Tight financial conditions, weak trade, and moderate confidence are affecting real estate and bank-dependent economies, especially in Europe.
Brazil’s anticipated growth for 2024 is lower, which is attributed to the Central Bank’s inflation-control efforts.
The OECD notes the varied impact of restrictive monetary policies across emerging markets.
For G20 nations, India leads with the highest predicted growth. The U.S. faces diverse growth rates due to its monetary policy.
Argentina, facing economic challenges, is the only country expected to see a GDP contraction.
These projections reflect global economic trends and the interconnected nature of international markets.
The reports from Fitch Ratings, OECD, IMF, and PwC offer comprehensive insights into these economic forecasts.
Background
The global GDP slowdown in 2024, with Brazil lagging, reflects major geopolitical shifts.
Influenced by U.S. monetary policies and China’s real estate issues, this downturn highlights global economic interdependence.
Brazil’s unique challenges contrast with other emerging markets, emphasizing the impact of inflation control policies.
In the G20, diverse economic paths emerge, with India leading growth, showcasing regional differences.
Argentina’s expected contraction contrasts sharply with India, illustrating varied national economic states.
These forecasts underscore the importance of adaptive fiscal and monetary strategies in a shifting economic landscape, shaping regional and global trends.