This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, ranging from 5.25% to 5.5%, as market analysts anticipated.
Initially, a 70% likelihood of a rate decrease had been forecasted for this session.
Yet, expectations shifted due to unexpected economic growth, higher inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance.
The Fed cited strong economic expansion, significant employment growth, and a low unemployment rate as key factors in maintaining the current rate.
It remains significantly high despite a reduction in inflation over the last year. The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% goal.
February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a critical inflation metric for the Fed, was reported at 2.4%, with the core index at 2.8%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced ongoing surveillance of economic indicators to inform future monetary policies.
The committee is ready to modify policies if needed to ensure its objectives are met.
Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Foresees Hike in Future
Unexpectedly, the Fed’s latest projections suggested a future rate increase. By the end of the year, a 0.75 percentage point reduction had been anticipated.
However, expectations for 2025 now range from 3.75% to 4%, a rise from the previous 3.5% to 3.75%.
The forecast for the end of 2026 has also been raised to between 3% and 3.25%, from 2.75% to 3%.
These changes are due to worsened PCE expectations. Predictions for the core PCE by the end of 2024 moved from 2.4% to 2.6%.
Moreover, the Fed now expects more robust economic activity this year, adjusting GDP growth for 2024 from 1.4% to 2.1% and the unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4%.
These decisions and projections highlight the Fed’s strategic approach to balancing economic growth with inflation control, signaling cautious optimism for the future.