Investors are spotting a unique opportunity in local Latin American debts, driven by expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.
This optimism is permeating national bond markets as Wall Street eagerly awaits the Fed’s meeting for insights on interest rate policies.
A potential U.S. policy shift and a weakening dollar might prompt emerging market central banks to ease rates, benefiting local currency debt holders.
Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. views this as a generational opportunity in local bonds.
Thanks to proactive regional monetary policies, Latin American domestic debt recently saw its best annual performance since 2009.
Victoria Courmes from GMO highlights the appeal of local debt due to the strong dollar, appealing emerging market (EM) currency valuations, and ongoing disinflation.
Clues about the onset of the U.S. easing cycle could weaken the dollar and improve EM local debt performance.
Key Insights for Investors
Global money managers, including Neuberger Berman and JPMorgan Chase & Co., are focusing on early 2024 as pivotal for this asset class.
While Latin American policymakers are ahead in their monetary cycles compared to the U.S. and Europe, a Federal Reserve pivot could lead to further relaxation.
Currently, there’s a 50% likelihood of U.S. monetary policy easing by March.
If the Fed pivots alongside a dollar decline, emerging market central banks might also reduce rates, lessening fears of local currency depreciation.
JPMorgan strategists note that decreasing inflation and steady growth support local bonds as the Fed moves toward lowering borrowing costs.
However, emerging assets initially showed instability in early 2024.
The largest emerging-market debt ETF on Wall Street sees the lowest short bets in over four years, signaling strategic adjustments.
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru are already cutting rates, with Mexico showing signs of possible reductions.
Brazil eyes a 0.5% rate cut; Chile and Colombia may follow suit in their initial 2024 monetary policy decisions.
This emerging market scenario offers a compelling entry point for investors, especially in local currency bonds.
The shift in global monetary policies and regional economic conditions is creating new investment avenues, particularly in Latin America.