Foreign investors are selling Colombia’s debt, yet the Colombian peso stays strong.
Leading this trend, Norway’s sovereign fund sold off 1.4 trillion pesos ($369 million) in local bonds last month.
Other notable sellers include Wellington Management, Saudi Arabia’s central bank, the UK’s Universities Superannuation Scheme, and Citigroup.
Conversely, local pension funds are buying more.
They added 1.2 trillion pesos in Colombian government bonds recently, looking to capitalize on high returns, according to an economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.
Interestingly, Colombia has the region’s highest interest rate at 13.25%. This rate is becoming more attractive as Brazil, Peru, and Chile ease their monetary policies.
Moreover, the Colombian peso has gained 24% this year. It’s the best-performing currency among 140 tracked by Bloomberg.
Higher oil prices and stable politics are bolstering the peso’s value.
In contrast, this year, foreign investors have sold a net total of 6.45 trillion pesos ($1.65 billion) in local bonds.
Background
Despite foreign exits, local confidence appears strong. This confidence speaks volumes about Colombia’s economic resilience. High interest rates seem to lure local pension funds.
Colombia’s currency also gives global investment clues. While it gains, other regional currencies struggle. This implies investors consider markets like Colombia safer bets.
Oil prices play a critical role too. As Colombia’s primary export, oil prices directly influence the peso’s value.
Political stability also counts. The failure of costly social reforms likely reassured investors.
However, the large-scale exit by foreigners raises questions. If locals can’t fill this void, the peso might weaken.
In summary, multiple factors affect the peso: local and foreign investment, interest rates, oil prices, and political stability. Its continued strength remains to be seen.