Citigroup strategists question President Gustavo Petro’s pension reform in Colombia.
They believe the plan, aiming for a multi-pillar system, might not pass or will be too diluted to impact markets significantly.
Citi’s lead economist, Esteban Tamayo, highlights the short timeline and potential dilution of the reform.
Currently, the Senate is debating it, resisting dismissal efforts. Petro’s proposal includes a transitional scheme for those nearing pension eligibility.
A government official emphasized the debate’s importance, aiming to benefit most Colombians.
Luis Carlos Reyes, from Colombia‘s tax authority, pointed out on social media that the reform could ensure pension system sustainability until 2070, assuming about 3% annual GDP growth.
After a healthcare reform setback, Petro‘s focus shifted to labor and pension reforms.
Tamayo doubts that labor reform will advance next semester. He forecasted healthcare reform’s failure, citing political noise and minimal asset impact from health entity interventions.
Economic Insights
Last year, Colombia’s economy grew only by 0.6%, mainly due to a steep investment decline.
Tamayo sees a potential recovery driven by interest rates and improved political sentiment.
However, he foresees a consumption slowdown and stagnant government spending as the main challenges for 2024.
Citigroup predicts a 4.4% inflation rate for Colombia by year-end 2024.
Tamayo notes the difficulty of negotiating fuel price increases but expects food prices to stabilize, indicating the worst of the El Niño phenomenon may be over.
He also mentions energy sector pressures from low reservoir levels and rising market prices.
This suggests delayed consumer impact due to futures contracts, thus minimizing immediate price shocks unless the situation is prolonged.