Brazil’s Central Bank unanimously cut the Selic rate to 10.75% after price trends prompted a sixth consecutive reduction, aligning with analysts’ expectations.
However, its Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) hinted at a likely rise in the Selic rate for 2024, indicating a hawkish turn in monetary policy.
This revelation led to widespread discussions, with market analysts suggesting that interest rates could breach the 9% mark by the year’s end, a figure that aligns with the upper limits projected by the Focus Bulletin.
This bulletin, a key aggregator of financial market forecasts, underscores the rigorous scrutiny applied to Brazil’s monetary policy and its broader economic impact, especially regarding inflation control and economic stability.
A discernible shift in the Central Bank’s communication revealed a more prudent future approach to rate reductions.
Initially predicting two 0.50 percentage point cuts, the bank has now reduced its forecast to just one in the near term.
A week ago, Itaú, Latin America’s largest bank, already said it expected a tougher inflation scenario and a higher Selic rate by year-end.
Specialists, including Rodolfo Margato from XP and Luca Mercadante from Rio Bravo, highlighted to local media the growing uncertainties and the possibility of higher rates.
They pointed to the challenging global economic landscape and persistent domestic inflation as key factors underpinning this cautious stance.
Despite the Central Bank’s stern tone, major investment firms, such as XP and ASA Investments, have decided not to adjust their end-of-year Selic rate predictions, holding them at 9% and 8.5%, respectively.
Itaú expects a higher Selic rate
They anticipate ongoing rate reductions, though possibly at a diminished pace, echoing the sentiments of BV Bank’s Roberto Padovani.
Padovani anticipates a more tempered approach to rate cuts moving forward, with an eye towards extending the easing cycle into 2025, taking into account inflationary trends and economic activities.
Consequently, while Copom’s latest statement has injected a measure of unpredictability into the market, it has not substantially altered the prevailing expectations for Brazil’s terminal Selic rate by year’s end.