Ribeirão Preto, SP – One plank of Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign platform in 2018 stated that he would not be a candidate for re-election if he won his first term. There is reason to believe he is no longer certain he should relinquish power down the road.
A few months ago, when visiting his former hometown in the interior of São Paulo, he let slip a reference to a possible second term, but quickly ran it back, and it’s been largely forgotten.
So, why should anyone think Bolsonaro is now positioning himself for a second term? The answer is simple – he is emulating Donald Trump, who is busily campaigning for re-election.
Trump has picked out his favorite whipping boys – issues or positions he intends to attack: (a) immigration; (b) “socialism”; (c) news media; and (d) China. Within the U.S., he attacks the liberal coastal states, where he lost badly in 2016.
Bolsonaro has been doing much of the same, although his favorite targets are slightly different: (a) indigenous reservations; (b) “cultural Marxism”; (c) news media; and (d) Europe. Within Brazil, he attacks the liberal northeastern states, where he lost badly in 2018.
Perhaps more to the point, Bolsonaro is clearly echoing Trump’s “I’m the boss, and I can do whatever I like” tone of voice. This version of machismo involves showing contempt for the legislative and judicial branches, and occasionally even for political allies.
The other Trumpian echo is Bolsonaro’s blatant distrust of any outsiders and his supine reliance upon his immediate family for any important policy decisions.
As a result, Bolsonaro has not been able to accomplish much of anything that requires actual legislation. The pension reform bill is progressing far more slowly in Congress than it ought to. Tax reform is on a back burner, as is the anti-corruption package that Justice Minister Sérgio Moro proposed early on.
So, what has Bolsonaro managed to accomplish?
Against the advice of anyone who cares about traffic safety, he has just carried out a campaign promise to abolish the use of mobile radar speed guns on federal highways.
Against the advice of anyone who cares about the rights of indigenous peoples, he keeps trying to put the regulatory agency (FUNAI) under the Ministry of Agriculture, not to mention firing two-thirds of its senior personnel.
Against the advice of anyone who cares about the fate of the Amazon forest, he advocates clearing ever more land by private parties (farms over forests) and by the government itself (roads over rivers).
Against the advice of anyone who cares about diplomacy, he snubs the French chancellor, badmouths Germany’s chancellor, and generally disregards the Norwegians. To top it off, he wants to nominate his son Eduardo as Ambassador to the U.S.
Bolsonaro’s electoral base, it hardly needs to be said, is mostly people who don’t care about (a) traffic safety; (b) indigenous people; (c) the Amazon forest; or (d) diplomacy. They love his “macho man” poses – fake rodeo riding, fake rifle firing – and his tough talk.
Talking the talk is easy; walking the walk can be rough when you need cooperation from the legislature and the judiciary.
But of course, if you’re running for re-election, you’re stimulating your base and encouraging them to keep the faith, notwithstanding nattering negative naysayers. That is precisely what Trump is doing, and it’s working for him.
Bolsonaro thinks it might just work for him too.