Heat wave: Brazil cuts over 6 million tons from its harvest estimates

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) released its latest monthly estimate for the 2021/22 grain harvest, where December’s positive expectations were completely eclipsed by the heat wave which is severely affecting crops.

In detail, the entity reduced its projection of Brazilian soybean output by 2.29 million tons compared to the previous report, while in the case of corn the decrease was of 4.28 million tons.

This indicates that the adverse weather conditions affecting major crops have claimed 6.57 million tons in one month, compared to December 2021 expectations.

In terms of total figures, the December estimate had been positive. Total Brazilian soybean threshing had been raised from 142.01 to 142.79 million tons and corn from 116.71 to 117.18 million tons.

However, the latest report indicates that the final soybean output would reach 140.5 million tons and 112.9 million tons in the case of corn. The new projections are lower than December’s estimates, but also lower than November’s.

In any case, Brazil maintains a high production expectation, given that the 2021/22 harvest would yield a total volume of 284.4 million tons, an inter-season increase of 12.5% or 32 million tons.

“Output expectations in the Midwest contributed to maintain the expectation of growth in grain production, despite the unfavorable weather conditions in the South of the country, which will impact the production of corn and soybean,” CONAB clarified.

CONAB’s figures are well above AgRural’s forecast, which last week reduced the soybean harvest from 144.7 million to 133.4 million tons.

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