Ribeirão Preto, SP – (Opinion) On Monday, November 2nd, this contemplative pundit made two calculated forecasts for the US presidential elections:
(1) “All the above paths lead Trump back to victory in the Electoral College. Biden arguably lost crucial eastern swing states Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) and Ohio (18) when he said he would end fracking. Trump’s paths also allow him to carry all four crucial southern swing states – Texas (38), Florida (29), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (15) – despite polls showing Biden leading, or at least even, in some of these.”
(2) “If Trump is right, Biden can only win an Electoral College majority by conquering, in addition to the states where he is far ahead, three western swing states: Minnesota (10), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6), where recent polls show his lead diminishing.”
It is now 8 AM Brazil time, Wednesday, November 4th; the polls are closed, but votes are still being counted in many swing states. Fox News is showing its map of the Electoral College race, and seemingly confirms the first prediction above – Trump will win all the crucial eastern and southern swing states.
The big surprise (to almost everyone) on the map is that two states where Biden was thought to be well ahead – Michigan and Wisconsin – are still shown as undecided, with Trump leading in the former. The minor surprise (to this pundit) is that the same map shows Biden as having already won both Minnesota and Arizona.
Nevada, however, is still undecided.
The Fox map says that Biden now has confirmed 238 EC votes, without Michigan’s 16 EC votes, Wisconsin’s 10 EC votes, or Nevada’s 6 EC votes. Simple arithmetic gives us 16 + 10 + 6 = 32. More simple arithmetic gives us 238 + 32 = 270, which is the magic number in the Electoral College.
In other words, if Biden can eke out wins in Michigan and Wisconsin – which seems likely as mail-in votes, favoring Biden, are counted in both states – the presidential race hinges on one state only – Nevada. In the gambling capital of the USA, the US presidency could now depend on a classic showdown: shuffle the deck, pick a card, one card each, high card wins.
[CAVEAT] At 2:30 AM on Wednesday morning, a calculating Trump proclaimed his own re-election and announced that he will go to court to prevent counting any more votes – particularly those in states where his calculations say he was leading on Tuesday. This will not end well for America.