By Peter Haisenko*
(Opinion) No one can claim not to know what the consequences would be if Kyiv attacked Russian territory.
Putin has left no doubt here that once this red line is crossed, formidable responses will follow.
After the Kerch Bridge attack, the time has come. All that is missing is the official declaration of war.
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For eight years, Kyiv has been murdering Russian residents of eastern Ukraine with impunity.
So it should not be surprising that the referenda there went overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia.
Four administrative areas are now members of the Russian Federation, and thus any attack by Kyiv on these areas is a direct attack on Russia. Again, Crimea has been part of Russia for eight years.
The people there are doing well now, although Kyiv has done everything to prevent that.
They destroyed an important dam and stopped the water supply.
Russia has already fixed that with its special operation. But so far, this special operation has been narrow in its objectives, which has not been all praise in Russia.
Putin personally, however, insisted until now on inflicting as minor damage as possible on the Ukrainian civilian population.
That is now over.
Putin had said that Russia had not even really begun its operation.
The morning of October 10 provided an impression of what he meant by that.
The Kyiv region and the entire West of Ukraine have not been attacked during the last months.
However, many Russian missiles found their targets in these areas as well.
Elementary infrastructure was destroyed, and hits were reported on or very close to the command centers of the military and the Ukrainian intelligence service SBU.
Widespread power outages, and thus Internet outages, were the result.
For the first time, Kyiv’s warnings about air alerts were justified.
Just as Kyiv had put people under permanent stress with its terror in the east, it is now hitting Kyiv directly.
After Kyiv had wanted to destroy the nuclear complex in Zaporizhia for months with continuous shelling, it is now hitting the energy infrastructure further West.
Did the West have a hand in the attack on the Kerch Bridge?
Kyiv wanted to cut off supplies to Crimea with its attack on the Kerch Bridge.
Not just military supplies. Just as the water supply has been cut off.
Of course, the collective West has already tried to blame Russia for this attack as well, although the reactions from Kyiv were clear.
However, Russia has meticulously traced the entire supply chain for the explosives used in the blast, and it leads all the way to Bulgaria, where the explosives were placed in the cargo.
This means that the “West” was at least involved in this attack. But what consequences this will have is still completely open.
So far, only Kyiv is feeling it.
But what would happen if Russia stopped all its energy supplies to the West in response?
Good, dark night, Germany!
Putin has practiced angelic patience toward Kyiv for many years. He warned that this would come to an end.
Nobody took him seriously.
That was a mistake because I am convinced that Putin and his team are grumpy now and will not return to their restrained approach.
As Putin rightly said, it does not matter at all what Moscow does because either way, the West will not even think of ending the sanctions regime against Russia.
It must be remembered once again: The German foreign minister has not only openly stated the goal of wanting to destroy Russia’s economy to install a new government in Moscow.
What is this other than a slightly veiled declaration of war?
STILL A LIMITED ACTION
As it stands now, the recent shelling by Russia against Kyiv is, again, a limited action.
The Kremlin announced that all targets had been hit. Nota bene: no civilians were shelled, only infrastructure companies.
There were almost no civilian casualties. So it is a final warning shot, and one can only hope Kyiv finally takes it seriously.
That Kyiv realizes that the West cannot protect it.
Not even by NATO because Kyiv is not a club member. So Moscow has adopted the tactics of the West used against Russia and is now using them against Kyiv.
However, the difference is that Moscow’s approach is practical.
The strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure will hurt Western Ukrainians.
Power outages and cold homes will be the result. This, in turn, may cause Western Ukrainians to also turn against the hasbarians in Kyiv and overthrow the criminals around Zelensky.
What else can you do without electricity but go out into the streets and protest?
Attention, this also applies to Germany.
The fact that Moscow has not yet gone full throttle with the blows that have been dealt may be judged by the fact that the gas has not yet been turned off.
However, it should also not be forgotten that the gas and water supply will cease to function in the event of a significant power failure.
Radio, television, Internet, (also oil) heating systems…
Oh yes, gas stations don’t work without electricity, either. Hello Germany, don’t forget that!
The gentlemen in the Kremlin have the upper hand.
They have control over the essential goods, without which the West cannot do.
No supplication processions to Arabia will help because the Saudis are cutting their oil production. They have known for some time who they can rely on … and whom not.
Who they plan to keep under control and who they don’t.
Let’s not forget: the U.S., the West, is dependent on the Saudis, therefore, must keep them under control, which is not the case for Russia.
How long will there be the War Ministry in Kyiv?
With the successful referenda in eastern Ukraine, everything has changed.
Russia is now defending parts of the Russian Federation and the inhabitants’ lives there.
Russian forces and those of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics are now under the joint high command and can operate even more effectively.
Just as weapons and supplies can now be delivered.
The fact is that Putin, a trained lawyer, had incurred quite a bit of resentment because he always tries to do everything correctly according to international law.
This prohibited him from intervening earlier and supplying weapons. Things are different now, and the Ukrainian armed forces will feel that.
Namely, what has been noticeable so far is that the special operation so far has not seen any specimens of Russia’s latest military technology.
No “Armata tank” and no long-range supersonic bombers.
That, too, is about to change.
Moscow has given a glimpse of what it can do. NATO, on the other hand, has already shot its powder.
Experts in the West warn that it will be outgunned if it continues to supply Kyiv at this rate.
What is interesting about the current situation is that the circumstances have reversed.
Whereas in the past, the U.S. could supply weapons and materials to warring parties on an almost unlimited scale thanks to its undisturbed production, this is no longer the case.
MOSCOW HAS TAKEN PRECAUTIONS
General production has been cut back, and even the U.S. cannot currently produce as fast as Kyiv demands.
The situation is different in Russia.
At the latest, with the coup on the Maidan, it was clear to the Kremlin that the West wanted war against Russia, down to the last Ukrainian.
Thus, for at least eight years, Moscow has been building up its weapons development and production, somewhat unnoticed, and building enormous reserves.
Even current production is running unusually high that the West cannot match.
It will take years for that to start up again.
The same goes for the nonsensical promises to do without Russian energy.
Even if it were achievable, the transition would not be complete for several years.
Until then: good night Germany.
What will happen to the rest of Ukraine now depends on Kyiv’s behavior.
Will it continue to slavishly follow Washington’s and London’s orders, thus pushing ahead with the destruction of the structures of the remaining remnant, or will it return to reasonable behavior?
A behavior that serves peace without regard to what NATO wants.
That ends the killing that Kyiv has done mercilessly for eight years and continues to do, with the ongoing shelling of Donetsk and other civilian facilities in the east.
SO FAR, IT IS STILL A LIMITED OPERATION
As yet, Russia has not declared war on Ukraine, on Kyiv. It has carried out limited retaliatory strikes as a solid warning.
If one compares this with what Israel allows itself to do to the Palestinians and is not blamed for it, no reproaches should be formulated against Russia.
One thing, however, should now be clear to Zelensky as well. If he continues his insane policy toward Russia, he will find himself in a dark, cold hole within a short time.
Without electricity and heating, but with a pulverized war ministry. With him, his proteges will find themselves in the same state and how long they will want to continue following him is foreseeable.
The military infrastructure also depends on electricity, and the generals know this. How long will they go along with the senseless slaughter of their boys?
Will they coup against Zelensky if Russia declares war with the announcement that it will cut off the power supply altogether? They know that Russia can do that and that there is nothing they can do about it.
Putin said he did not want to harm Ukrainian citizens from the beginning.
The Russian army has adhered to this as much as possible, even if it meant higher losses.
Kyiv, with its inhumane actions and now with the explosive attack on the Kerch bridge, has begged intensely enough to know a little of Russia’s military capabilities.
As has now become apparent, Russia can de-electrify the entire Ukraine within hours, thus shutting it down completely.
Incidentally, the same is true for all of Europe.
The lesson from Russia’s attacks today should be: You don’t mess with a big bear when you are just a rabbit whose den is only warm and lit when the bear wants it.
And it remains to be seen what effect it will have if the inhabitants of Kyiv now get to feel for themselves what it feels like to be under fire.
Just as residents in Donetsk and elsewhere in the east have suffered for eight years.
Maybe now the hardest nationalists and fascists in the West of Ukraine will realize how reprehensible they have acted so far towards their brothers in the east and come to their senses.
But this is probably a nice dream because their hatred of everything Russian has been nurtured and practiced for too long.
NATO has exploited and reinforced that. Nevertheless, I hope Russia’s current show of force will end the deaths in Ukraine.
As Putin said, we did not start the war but will end it now.
The war that Kyiv started eight years ago with the support of the West and waged barbarically.
* Peter Haisenko is the publisher of AnderweltOnline.com in Germany
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