Valmex, an investment fund operator, has cautioned that Mexico’s economy will face a deceleration in the near future due to monetary restrictions and a potential recession in the United States, its partner country.
Valmex updated its economic forecasts and predicted a slowdown for Mexico, starting in the latter half of 2023, resulting from a downturn in the United States and a subsequent decrease in exports.
The Mexican firm explained in a report that the highly correlated economic cycles of both countries could significantly impact Mexico’s economy.
Despite this, Valmex pointed out that the ongoing trend of nearshoring would assist Mexico in mitigating these effects, leading to a projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.3 percent this year.
Valmex’s calculations indicate that by 2024, Mexico’s GDP expansion would slow down to 1.4 percent.
The report also highlighted the main global risk that could affect Mexico, namely a weaker-than-expected global economy in the short term or potential recessions in various countries, particularly in the United States.