As Mexico and the U.S. grapple with changing monetary policies, the Mexican peso could face new targets in response to anticipated adjustments from the Federal Reserve.
Market analysts suggest that the peso might strengthen to MXN$16.42 per dollar in the short term before experiencing resistance levels and settling between MXN$16.50 and MXN$16.65 per dollar.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s possible rate hikes, the spread between U.S. and Mexican interest rates may shrink, exerting pressure on the peso.
Factors such as Mexico’s robust GDP growth and attractiveness relative to other Latin American economies could offset this effect.
Speculations indicate the Bank of Mexico might reduce its interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, further influencing the peso’s value.
The anticipated change, backed by the peso’s appreciation and market rates reduction, is expected to commence around November.
In the wake of these changes, strategists predict a shift towards a slight depreciation of the peso as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Mexico narrows towards the year’s end.
Furthermore, an economic slowdown could trigger risk aversion, reducing interest in emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso.
However, exports remain strong despite the peso’s appreciation this year, reflecting the complexity of these economic dynamics.