Private analysts estimate 126.4 % inflation for Argentina in 2023

Private analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) projected inflation of 126.4 percent year-on-year for 2023, with a monthly price increase rate of around 7 percent, the monetary entity indicated yesterday, Friday.

The data comes from a new Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) carried out by the monetary authority with the participation of 24 consulting firms and local and international research centers, and 14 financial entities in Argentina.

For analysts, the South American country’s inflation will slightly decrease to 107.5 percent by 2024, with a more significant reduction in 2025, expected to be at 55.5 percent year-on-year.

Regarding economic activity, REM participants estimated that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will fall 3.1 percent during the current year compared to 2022 and will also register an average contraction of 0.2 percent in 2024.

Regarding the exchange rate, consulting firms and research centers forecast that the official dollar will increase by an average of 7.26 percent per month to reach 232.30 pesos per unit in May.

Likewise, the participating entities forecast a drop in Argentina’s exports and imports for the current year of 18.6% and 13.5%, respectively.

As a result of the drop in activity, analysts projected an increase in unemployment by the end of 2023, with an unemployment rate estimated at 7.5 percent from the current 6.3 percent.

The estimates released Friday by the BCRA reflected greater concern about the Argentine economy heading into the year’s second half.

The REM participants’ inflation projection was 16.4 percentage points higher than analysts’ previous estimate.