Argentina: inflation expectations for 2023 soar

By Belén Escobar

Far from showing positive signs, inflation expectations for the next 12 months in Argentina continue to rise.

In May, the average stood at 96.4%, or 4.4 percentage points above April’s forecast, according to a survey by the Finance Research Center of the Torcuato di Tella University (UtdT).

The estimate grew after INDEC published the April figure, which stood at 8.4% monthly, bringing the accumulated variation in 2023 to 32% and the inter-annual variation to 108.8%.

This happened after a month of exchange rate tensions that raised CPI (Consumer Price Index) expectations for the coming months, for which economists had recalculated their estimates upwards.

Despite the adjustments, the figure was higher than expected.

DI TELLA’S INFLATION PROJECTIONS

In this scenario, the survey prepared by the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella showed an expectation of 96.4% for the next twelve months at the national level after reporting that 82% was expected in April.

Since the beginning of the year, almost every month, the analysis showed an increase in expectations, given that it was 75.4% in March.

It had been 69.9% in February, the only time it reflected a slight improvement, after 70.2% in January.

“Since the beginning of the year until the present edition, the increase in inflation expectations is around 26.2 percentage points”, that in the first month of 2023, the expected price increase for the following 12 months had been 70.2%, highlighted the UtdT.

In higher-income households, the average inflation expectation for the next 12 months since May is 100%, while in lower-income households, it is 90.1%.

Regarding regions, the Interior is closer to the national average, with a value of 96.2%.

On the other hand, the Federal Capital has an inflation expectation above the average, 108.2%, while Greater Buenos Aires is lower, 92%.

With information from Bloomberg

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