The activity index of the consulting firm OJF & Asociados suffered the most significant drop in the last 12 months.
The economy has remained in free fall since August last year, as officially confirmed by INDEC, and the recession is becoming increasingly difficult to circumvent.
The program launched by Minister Sergio Massa in August last year failed to meet practically none of its “real economy” objectives.
The General Activity Index (IGA) of the consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados confirmed a sharp drop of 1.2% in January 2023.
OJF’s indicator confirms a sort of advance and homologous estimate to the EMAE prepared by INDEC, but one month ahead of the official publication and based on its surveys.
This is the most important negative variation in the last 12 months, and it accumulated a 1.26% retraction concerning August the previous year, according to the seasonally adjusted series of the indicator.
January’s drop caused a sharp deceleration in the year-on-year growth rate (compared to January 2022), which reached an increase of 1.8%, according to the indicator.
The Agriculture, Livestock, Hunting, and Forestry sectors plummeted violently to 15.6% year-on-year due to the drought, and electricity, gas, and water services activity fell by 0.9% year-on-year.
“The agricultural sector adds a new month with double-digit negative annual records. It is worth clarifying that the measurement of the year’s first two months is subject to greater volatility than the rest.”
“Hence, the first month’s drop does not represent the trend we anticipate for the rest of the year, which is that of activity with a slightly negative trend”, explains the consultant’s report.
Likewise, INDEC officially confirmed that economic activity accumulated four months of constant decline between August and December 2022.
A retraction of 2.85% was accumulated in the period described, with monthly drops that are increasingly higher.
If the EMAE for January suffers a drop similar to that estimated by the OJF consulting firm, the economy will accumulate a significant 4% drop from August to five months of constant deterioration.
One of the main objectives postulated in August 2022 was to sustain the activity level so that this path would produce a revenue shock that would reduce the effort required to meet the targets set by the Monetary Fund.
The results observed were diametrically opposed, and despite the constant tax increases, tax collection plummeted in February.
With information from Derecha Diario