By Luzia Santos
Fitch Solutions consultancy said a few days ago that sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth would slow to 3.5% this year, down from 3.6% last year and the 4.1% average between 2010 and 2019.
“The highest inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and a further tightening in global financial conditions will constrain economic activity in many sub-Saharan African markets,” the consultancy says.
According to Fitch, this comes against a weak outlook for Nigeria and Angola, the region’s two largest oil producers, while noting some above-average growth in smaller economies, including Tanzania and Mozambique.
“We forecast regional growth to slow slightly to 3.5%, which compares with the 3.6% estimated for last year, which is below the 4.1% average recorded between 2010 and 2019,” the analysts write in a commentary sent to clients on the evolution of sub-Saharan African economies, to which Lusa had access.
High inflation and tightening international financial conditions will weigh on regional growth, which has to deal with power cuts in South Africa and Zambia, falling oil production in Nigeria and Angola, and a reduction in business confidence in Kenya and Ghana; the analysts point out.
“Growth will slow in four of the five largest markets in the region,” they point out, pointing to Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Angola, with Ethiopia being the exception.
Fitch Solutions predicted earlier this month that Angola’s economy would slow from 4% last year to 1.8% this year, essentially due to problems in the oil sector, with expansion based on the non-oil sector, and accelerate to 2.3% next year.
With information from Forbes