Monetary policy meetings scheduled this week in Mexico, Chile, and Brazil

This week, three of Latin America’s major economies – Brazil, Mexico, and Chile – will hold monetary policy meetings.

In Brazil, despite a consensus to keep the interest rate at 13.75% on June 21, analysts predict a softening tone in the policymakers’ post-meeting statement.

For Mexico, analysts anticipate that policymakers will maintain the reference rate (currently at 11.25%) in their June 22 meeting, signaling the end of the adjustment cycle and a long-term plan to maintain this rate.

Moreover, the biweekly inflation data for Mexico will be released.

Inflation likely continued its downward trend in the first half of June, aligning with the central bank’s perspective and their forecast for rate reductions in the fourth quarter.

Regarding Chile, analysts believe the central bank will keep the reference rate (currently at 11.25%) at its June 19 meeting and may hint at a first rate cut in July.

Updated forecasts will likely show moderated inflation, a smaller positive output gap, and additional rate cuts for this year and the next.

Meanwhile, Argentina will release first-quarter GDP data, confirming that the economy performed well in early 2023.

Lastly, Colombia’s activity index will be released, likely showing a drop in April compared to the previous month.

Analysts expect a return to sustainable levels after adjustments following an above-potential performance in 2022.

On June 22, Argentina will release Q1 GDP data. Economists project a quarterly expansion of 0.8% and an annual growth of 1.5%.

On June 21, Brazil’s Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting.

Analysts predict maintenance of the 13.75% policy rate but expect a less aggressive tone in the accompanying statement.

Chile’s monetary policy meeting will be held on June 19, with analysts anticipating the reference rate to remain at 11.25%.

Updated macroeconomic forecasts and a detailed policy outlook will be published in the quarterly inflation report on June 20.

Colombia’s April Economic Activity Index will be released on June 20, with Bloomberg estimating 0.1% growth.

Mexico’s April Retail Sales Index, expected to show a 2.5% annual growth, will be published on June 20.

Mexico’s biweekly inflation for the first half of June and the Central Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy meeting will both take place on June 22.