In a recent interview, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad indicated that the performance of the agribusiness sector early this year will be the main contributor to Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2023.
Despite a potential slowdown in the year’s second half, Haddad stressed that the strong performance in the first quarter would significantly underpin economic growth.
Haddad stated that conversations were held to ensure the government did not prematurely celebrate this growth, considering the noticeable signs of deceleration from May onwards.
He opined that the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) should have indicated a cut in the Selic rate in May and June but characterized the committee as conservatively inclined.
A decrease in the rate to 13.25% would be a signal, yet Haddad considers it insufficient in practice.
Anticipating a likely market slowdown in the year’s second half, the Finance Minister pointed out that no economy could withstand a projected real interest rate of 10%.
He believes there is ample room for reducing the current level and that a cycle of cuts should commence.
Despite governmental pressure, in June, the Central Bank decided to keep the interest rate at 13.75% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
Haddad expressed confidence in the Central Bank’s competent career staff and robust technical body.
He believes they have the resources needed to prevent damage to the Brazilian economy, asserting that an interest rate cut would be the first step towards sustainable growth.
The Finance Minister also commented on the Central Bank’s lack of plurality despite its strong technical preparation.
He stated that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s appointees for the Central Bank’s board would introduce diverse viewpoints, refreshing the debate and providing new perspectives and analysis of the unfolding economic situation.
In 2023, Brazilian agriculture is anticipated to see at least four record-breaking harvests: soy, corn, wheat, and sorghum, according to the latest report from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
According to a 2021 study by Embrapa’s Secretariat of Intelligence and Strategic Relations, Brazilian farmers fed around 1.6 billion people worldwide in 2019 and 2020.