February saw the fourth straight month of growth for the Brazilian Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), a precursor to GDP.
The index rose by 0.40% from January, with adjustments for seasonal influences, continuing its positive trajectory.
Previously, the IBC-Br had faltered, posting declines across three months from August to October.2.59%, complemented by a 2.95% rise in the year’s initial months.
This contributed to an overall growth of 2.34% over the past twelve months.
This trend reflects broader economic movements, as captured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which conducts official GDP measurements.
Despite broader fluctuations, Brazil’s economy expanded by 2.9% in 2023, maintaining stability in the latter part of the year.
The Central Bank’s IBC-Br index provides a more frequent snapshot of the economy than official GDP data, covering key sectors like industry, services, and agriculture.
This index specifically excludes metrics related to consumer and government spending.
In its recent update, the Central Bank noted that the IBC-Br grew by 2.45% in 2023, with a 0.22% quarter-over-quarter increase at year-end.
The IBC-Br is crucial in monetary policy, guiding the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in setting Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate.
Steady Rise in Brazil’s Economic Activity
Looking ahead, market analysts, according to the Focus Bulletin, are optimistic, adjusting their 2024 GDP growth forecast for Brazil from 1.90% to 1.95%.
Expectations for 2025 predict a 2% expansion in Brazil’s economy.
Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates a growth of 2.2% for the current year, reflecting confidence in Brazil’s economic resilience.