This week, from March 11 to 15, the spotlight is on Brazil’s IPCA and the U.S. CPI, key inflation indicators.
These statistics will guide key policy decisions by Brazil’s Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.
First, Brazil’s B3 stock market resumes its standard hours on Monday, adjusting for U.S. daylight saving changes. Markets open at 10 a.m. and close at 5 p.m.
Brazil will release February’s IPCA data at 9 a.m. on Tuesday. Higher fuel taxes and school fees drive expectations of an increase from January.
However, food prices might see relief from lower El Niño risks while service prices continue to be watched.
From Brazil’s Central Bank, Diogo Guillen suggested revisiting Selic rate cuts, citing inflation forecasts above the 3% goal for 30 weeks.
This raises questions on the path to lower inflation, possibly altering future rate cut signals.
Shortly after, U.S. inflation figures, with a current 12-month rate at 3.1%, will be revealed.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the need for price stability before cutting rates suggest that June is the likely start of reductions.
However, CPI outcomes could adjust these expectations, potentially moving the timeline for easing rates forward.
Week’s Economic Events:
- Monday (11): Market shifts back to standard hours.
- Tuesday (12): Brazil’s IPCA and U.S. CPI inflation rates; Argentina’s inflation data; financial statements from Energisa.
- Wednesday (13): Brazil’s employment data; financial updates from Eletrobras, Hypera, and Casas Bahia.
- Thursday (14): Retail data from Brazil and the U.S.; U.S. Producer Price Index; financial statements from Lojas Renner, Cyrela, and Yduqs.
- Friday (15): Brazil’s service sector data; U.S. industrial production figures.
This week’s inflation data from Brazil and the U.S. will significantly impact monetary policy decisions, highlighting the global interconnection of financial markets and economies.