In July, the National Broad Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15), an early measure of Brazil’s official inflation, saw a deflation of 0.07%, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported.
This followed a marginal increase of 0.04% in June. For comparison, in July 2022, the IPCA-15 rose by 0.13%.
The July deflation was lower than the predictions made by a pool of analysts from financial institutions and consultancies.
These projections had estimated a July drop of 0.03%, with estimations ranging from -0.13% to +0.02%.
On a 12-month basis up until July, the IPCA-15 recorded an increase of 3.19%, compared to 3.40% up until June.
This rate is also below the median projection of 3.24% and is closely aligned with the Central Bank’s inflation target for 2023 of 3.25%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points either way.
Key influences on the IPCA-15 in July included a 0.63% rise in the Transportation group, which had a 0.13 percentage point impact on the overall index.
On the other hand, a decrease in residential electricity costs by 3.45% primarily contributed to the observed deflation.
The IPCA-15 provides an early view of the IPCA, based on a standard consumption basket for families earning between one and 40 minimum wages across nine metropolitan regions, Brasília, and Goiânia.
The two indices differ in their data collection periods and geographic coverage.