Experts anticipate the international market to continue demanding more crude oil over the next few years, despite the growing shift toward renewable energy sources.
With this demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the global oil production will increase by 5.8 million barrels per day by 2028, a quarter of which will come from Latin America.
The main contributors to this oil boom are predicted to be Brazil, Guyana, and to a lesser extent, Argentina.
These countries supersede previous oil giants such as Venezuela, Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia, whose oil supply in the international market is expected to decline over the next five years.
Brazil has become a significant player due to its offshore discoveries.
Extracting oil from large fields deep underwater has led the nation to become Latin America’s largest oil producer since 2017.
Furthermore, both Brazil and Guyana produce crude oil more efficiently and profitably than other countries, while emitting less CO2 per barrel produced, making their oil potentially more attractive in the future.
Guyana, a relatively poor country, is on the verge of wealth due to recent discoveries of substantial oil reserves, transforming its economic status.
In contrast, despite facing high inflation and chronic debt, Argentina has been growing its oil and gas production in recent years.
Historically dominant oil producers in the region, such as Mexico and Venezuela, have seen a decline.
Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has since halved, while Venezuela’s production plummeted from 3.4 million barrels per day in 1998 to just 700,000 currently.
Predictions suggest a decline in the oil sector for countries like Ecuador and Colombia too.
Ecuador’s economy heavily depends on oil revenues, so a decrease in production would significantly impact the country.
Colombia is progressively shifting to renewable energy sources, intending to offset its decrease in oil exports.
The next decade’s fate depends on the region’s energy transition pace and global oil demand.
The changing landscape of global energy production suggests that the peak of oil demand might be nearing its end, opening a new chapter in worldwide energy production.