Barclays praised Argentina’s economic strategy under President Javier Milei for its promising direction and strong economic indicators.
The bank highlighted indicators that point to positive fiscal results and an increase in Central Bank reserves, boosted by the upcoming grain harvest.
Despite these gains, Barclays noted significant political risks remain for Milei’s administration.
Negative effects on economic activity and vulnerable groups in Argentina could occur while the economic signs look strong.
Barclays predicts a decrease in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index potentially dropping to single digits by mid-2024 as tariff increase impacts wane.
The bank expressed optimism for Argentina’s near-term fiscal health, reserve levels, and inflation trends.
However, it also pointed out the potential costs, including a deep recession and challenges in governance.
Political obstacles, especially between the government and opposition, pose significant hurdles despite recent signs of conflict easing.
Barclays noted the government’s engagement in the May Pact and meetings with governors as strategic steps toward securing approval for crucial fiscal laws.
Plans include proposing a “Bases Law” covering fiscal aspects, a new pension mobility formula, and reintroducing Income Tax for higher earners.
The bank believes these legislative efforts could facilitate IMF funding.
Yet, it warns of heightened governance risks in the upcoming quarter, suggesting that political crisis, possibly spurred by economic difficulties, represents the most significant threat.
Barclays Optimistic on Argentina’s Economy Amid Challenges
Following a fiscal surplus in January, Barclays expects a downturn in fiscal outcomes compared to the start of the year.
Still, it projects a primary surplus of 0-0.5% of GDP in 2024, an improvement from a 2.9% deficit in 2023.
The government’s fiscal consolidation strategy adjustments, including higher energy tariffs, aim for long-term sustainability.
In conclusion, Barclays warned that these fiscal adjustments might lead to severe recession and increased poverty as real incomes drop.
The government faces the challenge of balancing inflation reduction, recession mitigation, and reserve accumulation.
This comprehensive approach underscores the interconnectedness of Argentina’s economic policy, political stability, and social welfare.
As the country navigates these challenges, its ability to implement effective reforms and maintain economic growth will be crucial.