As Argentina’s presidential election approaches, the uncertainty looms for those holding $65 billion in the country’s bonds.
Most signs point to a risky investment climate, so investors are preparing for three main scenarios.
Firstly, many are worried about libertarian candidate Javier Milei winning the first round.
Milei, often compared to Donald Trump, wants to use U.S. dollars in Argentina to control rising prices.
However, experts caution that this could make inflation worse in the short term.
Trevor Yates from Global X Investments points out that Milei will face challenges, especially since he lacks strong support in Congress.
Secondly, another candidate, Patricia Bullrich, offers a different route. She aims to cut the government’s spending and lift limits on foreign investment.
If she performs well, it could boost the value of Argentine bonds.
According to Claudia Calich of M&G Investments, the key question is who can put their plans into action most effectively after the election.
Thirdly, a possible face-off between Milei and Economic Minister Sergio Massa could be bad news for bondholders.
Massa wants to keep spending government money, which could increase inflation even more.
Patrick Esteruelas of Emso Asset Management says this would be the worst outcome for those holding Argentine bonds.
While most expect these outcomes, elections can always have surprises.
Milei did well in earlier votes, so a second round between Bullrich and Massa seems unlikely but not impossible.
In such a case, Bullrich, who is favored by many investors, could win, potentially benefiting the bonds.
Finally, investors need to brace themselves. “We should prepare for another financial rollercoaster in Argentina,” says Ray Zucaro of RVX Asset Management.
With this election, the future of these investments remains uncertain, highlighting the need for caution and close observation.