Argentina’s March Inflation Trends and Future Expectations

According to recent private surveys, March’s inflation rate in Argentina is expected to be between 10% and 14%.

This projection keeps inflation within double digits despite some downward revisions from analysts.

The national stats agency Indec revealed that February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 13.2%, with a year-to-date increase of 36.6% and a year-on-year surge of 276.2%.

The February figure came in below the expectations of many economists, who had predicted a range of 14% to 17%.

Inflation rates were significantly higher in the preceding months, with January at 20.6% and December at an exceptional 25.5%.

Pablo Repetto of Aurum Valores estimates March’s inflation to be around 12% to 12.5%.

Meanwhile, Facimex Valores adjusted their March forecast from 15.5% to 14.0%. Such estimates indicate that March’s inflation will persist in the double-digit territory.

The Fundación Libertad y Progreso predicted a slightly more optimistic 10.6% increase for March, a slowdown from February’s rate.

This forecast aligns with the government’s expectations, as hinted by Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who suggested a target of nearly 10% for March’s CPI.

If these projections hold, the first quarter will show a CPI increase of 51.1%, with an annual rate of 286.4% — the highest since March 1991.

The report observed a notable spike in prices for regulated services like electricity and school fees in early March, followed by a gradual slowdown.

Looking towards April, Repetto forecasts inflation between 10% and 11%, with a close watch on tariffs and fuel prices.

Facimex believes achieving single-digit monthly inflation by the second semester is now more plausible.

However, they warn of a potential return to double-digit inflation, driven by price adjustments in regulated sectors and possible increases in the crawling-peg rate, particularly with expected hikes in May.