In 2024, airlines are gearing up for a historic achievement by aiming to transport an unprecedented 4.7 billion passengers globally.
This target exceeds the pre-pandemic count of 4.54 billion in 2019, signaling a strong industry recovery.
Starting in 2023, airlines are working to reverse the financial impacts of COVID-19. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports expected net gains of $23.3 billion.
This figure notably rises from the earlier forecast of $9.8 billion. Yet, the passenger forecast for this year is slightly down, from 4.35 billion to 4.29 billion.
For 2024, IATA forecasts airline profits will stabilize at about $25.7 billion. Sector revenue is projected to reach an all-time high of $964 billion.
This number surpasses both the $896 billion expected in 2023 and the $838 billion in 2019.
The future outlook varies by region. Airlines in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East are likely to maintain profits in 2024.
In contrast, Asia-Pacific airlines, currently facing losses, are expected to rebound to profitability.
However, African and South American carriers might continue to struggle with losses.
Between 2020 and 2022, the airline industry suffered greatly due to COVID-19, incurring about $183 billion in losses.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasizes the resilience of the sector.
He remarks on the rapid pace of recovery but acknowledges the pandemic’s four-year setback on industry growth.
The industry looks forward to normal growth patterns in 2024 for both passenger and cargo transport.
Cargo transport, crucial during the pandemic peak, is expected to generate $111 billion in 2024.
This is less than the $210 billion in 2021 but still above the $101 billion in 2019.
Higher ticket prices
Passenger transport saw a swift recovery in 2023, leading to higher ticket prices. This was due to demand surpassing the limited capacity of airlines.
As per IATA, the trend is likely to slow in 2024 but will not reverse. Aircraft occupancy rates have already returned to pre-pandemic levels.
However, Walsh notes that air transport profitability is low compared to other sectors, averaging just $5.45 per passenger.
Airlines are still facing high fuel costs. 2024, these are expected to be $281 billion, 31% of operational expenses.
This is based on a kerosene price of $113.8 per barrel in 2024, up from $79.7 in 2019.
In line with COP28 climate summit forecasts, airlines in 2024 will likely use 374 billion liters of fuel, emitting 939 million tons of CO2.
Air transport is responsible for less than 3% of global CO2 emissions. Yet, its impact on global warming is more significant due to nitrogen oxides and contrails.
The industry aims to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It focuses on increasing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.
SAF’s share in air transport fuel is expected to be 0.53% in 2024, a slight increase from 0.2% this year.