The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of ongoing currency weakness in African economies, expected to persist until Q3 2024.
This comes as the US Federal Reserve eyes a peak interest rate of around 5.4%, set to pressure struggling African currencies further.
Since 2022, significant economies, including the EU, UK, and US, have seen interest rates rise by at least four percentage points, impacting African nations dependent on imports and borrowing.
The falling value of currencies like the Kenyan shilling, which has significantly depreciated against the US dollar since 2020, escalates import costs.
This inflation spikes living costs within these countries. Record lows were seen with the naira and the Kenyan shilling, with the naira dropping to ₦1,039/$ before settling at ₦899.89/$.
Despite new monetary policies aimed at targeting inflation, the Kenyan shilling’s value continues to fall.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces inflationary pressures due to its reliance on imported goods, mostly priced in US dollars.
A 1% depreciation against the dollar can increase inflation by 0.22 percentage points within a year.
This depreciation also raises public debt levels, with about 40% of the region’s public debt being external.
Central banks stabilize currencies with reserves, but dwindling reserves hinder sustained intervention against ongoing challenges.
Some countries have also resorted to measures like foreign exchange rationing, which can lead to distortions and corruption.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Economic Outlook
Looking ahead, the IMF and World Bank offer a cautiously optimistic view for sub-Saharan Africa, forecasting growth to rebound to 4% in 2024.
Efforts to address macroeconomic imbalances, such as reducing fiscal deficits, are contributing to stabilizing public debt despite global challenges.
This growth, however, emphasizes the need for reforms to foster economic prosperity, reduce poverty, and create jobs.
In summary, Africa faces currency depreciation, inflation challenges, but anticipates recovery through strategic reforms and macroeconomic stabilization for future growth.