The Lula government is anticipating a 2.3% increase in the economy in 2024, as per the budget proposal submitted to Congress.
This forecast is part of the official Annual Budget Law Project (PLOA), which also includes a 2.5% growth projection for the current year.
The PLOA is based on the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO), which had initially estimated a 2.34% growth for 2024.
Officials are predicting a 2.8% expansion in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and 2.6% in 2027.
Inflation and Interest Rates
Authorities forecast that the inflation, measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), will be 3.30% in 2024, lower than the 3.52% previously anticipated in the LDO.
The same 3.00% inflation rate is expected for 2025, 2026, and 2027.
The average basic interest rate (Selic) is predicted to be 9.8% in 2024, which is lower than the current 13.25%.
Additionally, interest rates of 7.82% in 2025, 7.05% in 2026, and 7.06% in 2027 are anticipated.
The PLOA also estimates the average exchange rate to be R$ 5.02 next year, R$ 5.09 in 2025, R$ 5.18 in 2026, and R$ 5.23 in 2027.
Government Revenues and Expenditures
The PLOA predicts that total federal revenues will reach R$ 2.7 trillion (US$556.7 billion) next year, equivalent to 23.7% of the GDP.
The net revenue, after deductions, is projected to be R$ 2.191 trillion (US$451.5 billion).
It is expected that R$ 41.418 billion (US$8.54 billion) will be received in dividends next year.
Additionally, R$ 113.6 billion (US$23.4 billion) is estimated to be collected from natural resource exploitation, which includes oil royalties, and R$ 44.369 billion (US$9.14 billion) from concessions and permissions.
Total expenditure for 2024 is planned to be R$ 2.188 trillion ($450.9 billion), equivalent to 19.2% of the GDP.
Of this amount, R$ 2.114 trillion (US$435.9 billion) are mandatory expenses.
The budget also allocates R$ 174.274 billion (US$35.9 billion) for discretionary expenses, which are non-mandatory and can be adjusted more easily.