Brazil’s agriculture and livestock industry has seen impressive growth in the early months of the year, but this might give a misleading impression of the overall state of Brazil’s economy.
Although rural producers are reaping a bumper crop, boosting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, sectors like industry remain stagnant, with consumption and productive investment failing to meet expectations.
Due to the success of the agricultural sector, the GDP grew by 1.9% in the first quarter, surpassing predictions.
This sparked a flurry of upward revisions in economists’ annual projections, with median expectations rising from 1.26% to 1.68% and the most optimistic predictions increasing from 2.3% to 3%, according to the Central Bank’s Focus bulletin.
However, while the countryside production shot up almost 22% compared to the final quarter of 2022, other sectors tell a different story.
Industrial GDP fell by 0.1%, marking its second consecutive decline. Services, conversely, grew by 0.6%.
The consumption perspective was equally underwhelming.
The so-called internal absorption — the total household consumption, productive investment, and government spending — fell short of expectations.
Household consumption grew by just 0.2%, government expenditure increased by 0.3%, and productive investment contracted by 3.4%.
Insufficient household consumption growth, despite fiscal incentives
Despite the uptick in employment, fiscal stimulus through the Bolsa Família program, and an increase in real wages, household consumption growth in the first quarter was disappointing.
Defaults, or missed payments, have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, causing 43.8% of the adult Brazilian population to have credit restrictions.
Households are also facing greater financial obligations.
A study conducted by the National Confederation of Trade of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) indicates that in April, 78.3% of families had debts to pay.
The expectation is that this situation will worsen in the coming months.
Investment decline hampers future GDP growth
Investment slumped 3.4% in the first quarter, the worst start to the year for this metric since 2009.
This decline, like household consumption, was affected by higher interest rates. Importantly, a decline in investment raises concern among economists, as investment is a key driver of sustainable economic growth.
The investment rate dropped from 18.9% of GDP in the last quarter of 2022 to 17.7% in the first three months of this year.
This shrinkage reflects the slowdown in the commodity-related sectors and the impact of interest rates on construction.
Early indications from the second quarter depict a worsening scenario
Preliminary data from the second quarter reveals a continued downward trend. The physical production of capital goods dropped 8.3% year-over-year in the first four months of 2023.
This impacts not just capital goods but also durable consumer goods, which are experiencing a downturn despite a growth of 5.8% year-over-year in the first quarter.
GDP projections for future quarters
Projections for the upcoming quarters suggest a slowdown in GDP growth. With a retraction in domestic absorption in the first quarter, the expectation is that the strong GDP growth was largely driven by sectors less sensitive to the economic cycle, such as agriculture, livestock, and the extractive industry.
Investments are expected to remain sluggish due to the persistently high-interest rates. For consumption, the outlook is for fragile growth.
However, a drop in inflation and the anticipated start of interest rate cuts in the year’s second half may lead to a growth recovery by year-end, albeit slow growth is likely to continue into 2024.
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