The economist of the African department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Thibault Lemaire, told Lusa he anticipates that the consortiums led by France’s TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil will start production in 2027 and 2029, respectively.
“Two onshore liquefied natural gas exploration projects are expected to start production in 2027 and 2029, which will positively impact growth via production, tax revenues, and the current account,” said the IMF economist.
He’s taking for granted that France’s TotalEnergies will return to Mozambique after suspending work due to violence in the north of the country and that US company ExxonMobil will soon move forward with a positive Final Investment Decision for Mozambique.
The country “continues to face significant development challenges, particularly due to the greater frequency and severity of natural disasters related to climate change,” said Thibault Lemaire in statements to Lusa.
His statement followed the release of the report on forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, presented as part of the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
After the 4.1% registered in 2022, an acceleration from the 2.3% growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, already following the worst phase of the pandemic, and with recoveries in the hotel, transport, and communications sectors, the IMF expects an acceleration in economic expansion.
“For 2023, and in the medium term, we expect a further recovery; the 5% growth in 2023 will be driven by the extractive industries, including Coral South, the first liquefied natural gas project,” whose first export was already made late last year, he pointed out.
Mozambique has three development projects approved to exploit the natural gas reserves in the Rovuma basin, classified among the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado.
Two of these projects are larger and foresee channeling the gas from the seabed to the land, cooling it in a plant to export it in a liquid state.
One is led by TotalEnergies (the Area 1 consortium).
Work progressed until it was suspended indefinitely after an armed attack on Palma in March 2021.
The French energy company declared it would only resume work when the area was safe.
The other is the still unannounced investment that ExxonMobil and Eni (Area 4 consortium) led.
A third completed and smaller project also belongs to the Area 4 consortium.
It consists of a floating platform to capture and process gas for export directly at sea, starting in November 2022.
The floating platform is expected to produce 3.4 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) of liquefied natural gas, Area 1’s target is 13.12 mtpa, and Area 4’s onshore plan calls for 15 mtpa.
With information from Lusa